Modal CEO：开源 LLM 推理见顶了吗？算力成本将如何变化

简要描述Brief Description

Modal 首席执行官：开源大语言模型推理是否已达峰值？计算成本将如何变化？Modal CEO: Has Open-Source LLM Inference Peaked? | What Happens to the Cost of Compute

目录Table of Contents

• 简介
  Intro
• 埃里克八岁时如何爱上编程
  How Erik Fell in Love With Coding at Eight Years Old
• 埃里克为何拒绝“吃玻璃”式的创始人叙事
  Why Erik Rejects the “Eating Glass” Founder Narrative
• 为什么埃里克讨厌融资
  Why Erik Hates Fundraising
• 为什么 Erik 从未制作过路演演示文稿
  Why Erik Has Never Made a Pitch Deck
• 为什么创始人不应总是追求估值最大化
  Why Founders Shouldn’t Always Maximise Valuation
• 为什么早期创业公司其实并没有护城河
  Why Early-Stage Startups Don’t Really Have Moats
• 为什么品牌在 AI 基础设施领域比以往任何时候都更重要
  Why Brand Matters More Than Ever in AI Infrastructure
• 为什么推理正在成为新的云计算基石
  Why Inference Is Becoming the New Cloud
• 为什么纯推理会成为一种商品化业务
  Why Pure Inference Becomes a Commodity Business
• 推理业务的毛利将从何而来
  Where the Gross Margins in Inference Will Come From
• 为什么推理市场将分化为专业化产品
  Why the Inference Market Will Fragment Into Specialized Products
• GPU“露天毒品市场”内部
  Inside the “Open-Air Drug Market” for GPUs
• 为什么 Modal 想要汇聚全球的计算资源
  Why Modal Wants to Aggregate the World’s Compute
• Modal 如何预测 GPU 需求月环比增长 34%
  How Modal Forecasts GPU Demand Growing 34% Month-on-Month
• GPU 价格会随时间如何变化？
  What Happens to GPU Prices Over Time?
• 为什么 AI 算力需求仍处于极早期阶段
  Why AI Compute Demand Is Still Extremely Early
• 专业化 AI 硬件会威胁英伟达吗？
  Does Specialized AI Hardware Threaten Nvidia?
• 为什么 CUDA 并非英伟达真正的护城河
  Why CUDA Is Not Nvidia’s Real Moat
• Neo-Cloud 能否成功向上拓展技术栈，进军推理领域？
  Can Neo-Clouds Successfully Move Up the Stack Into Inference?
• 随着前沿模型成本降低，开放模型将何去何从？
  What Happens to Open Models as Frontier Models Get Cheaper?
• 欧洲能否打造出有竞争力的开放模型？
  Can Europe Produce a Competitive Open Model?
• 英伟达为何支持美国开放模型生态系统
  Why Nvidia Is Backing the US Open-Model Ecosystem
• 为什么专业化模型能够发展成庞大的业务
  Why Specialized Models Can Become Huge Businesses
• Jev达到1000亿美元估值的看涨逻辑
  The Bull Case for Jev at $100BN
• Modal 计划如何从一款产品拓展为一个平台
  How Modal Plans to Expand From a Product Into a Platform
• Modal 的沙箱业务如何实现 3 亿美元年化营收规模
  How Modal’s Sandbox Business Reached a $300M Run Rate
• 为什么基础设施产品可能需要数年才能找到杀手级应用场景
  Why Infrastructure Products Can Take Years to Find Their Killer Use Case
• 为什么 Modal 在开放模型推理方面投入不足
  Why Modal Underinvested in Open-Model Inference
• 开源模型推理已经见顶了吗？
  Has Open-Model Inference Already Peaked?
• Modal 年化营收达到 10 亿美元的运行率
  Modal Hits a $1BN Revenue Run Rate
• Modal 在 12 个月内能发展到多大？
  How Big Can Modal Be in 12 Months?
• Modal接下来的重大营收机会
  Modal’s Next Big Revenue Opportunities
• 后训练将变得多么重要？
  How Important Will Post-Training Become?
• 为什么 AI 智能体不会取代软件工程师
  Why AI Agents Won’t Kill Software Engineers
• Modal 每月在编程智能体上花费约 50 万美元
  Modal Spends ~$500K Per Month on Coding Agents
• 随着模型成本降低，编码代理的支出还会持续增长吗？
  Will Coding-Agent Spend Keep Growing as Models Get Cheaper?
• 为什么如今 AI 训练数据市场如此有利可图
  Why AI Training Data Is Such a Lucrative Market Today
• 每家公司都应该拥有自己的智能吗？
  Should Every Company Own Its Own Intelligence?
• 模型路由是一门站得住脚的生意吗？
  Is Model Routing a Defensible Business?
• 埃里克为何会告诉 OpenRouter 不要出售
  Why Erik Would Have Told OpenRouter Not to Sell
• 为什么埃里克预计 AI 市场将回调 20%–30%
  Why Erik Expects a 20–30% AI Market Pullback
• 为什么员工二级股权交易在 AI 人才争夺战中至关重要
  Why Employee Secondaries Matter in the AI Talent War
• 为什么顶尖 AI 实验室愿意向优秀应届毕业生支付 2000 万美元以上的薪酬
  Why Top AI Labs Are Paying Exceptional New Grads $20M+
• 埃里克为何会支持 TurboPuffer
  Why Erik Would Back TurboPuffer
• 埃里克对沙盒市场看法的转变
  What Erik Changed His Mind on About the Sandbox Market
• Erik 会避免投资的 AI 公司
  Which AI Companies Erik Would Avoid Investing In
• 为什么 AI 药物研发最令埃里克兴奋
  Why AI Drug Discovery Excites Erik Most

简介Intro

我认为，凭借大量专用推理模型，有机会打造一家估值千亿美元的公司。市场会出现回调。我对此泰然处之，因为我认为长期机会实在太[ __ ]大了，真的大得惊人。今天，我非常高兴地欢迎 Modal 联合创始人兼首席执行官 Eric 做客。Modal 的年化收入刚刚突破 10 亿美元。他们刚刚完成 7.5 亿美元融资，由 Excel 领投，目前估值达到 157.5 亿美元。今天，我们将深入探讨推理市场、未来的发展、那些无人察觉却人人都该看到的趋势，以及更多话题。I think there is an opportunity to create a hundred billion dollar company with a lot of specialized models in inference. There's going to be a pullback. I'm okay with that because I think the long-term opportunity is so [ __ ] big. It's like so large. Today, I'm thrilled to welcome Eric, co-founder and CEO of Modal. Now, Modal just hit a billion in AR. They just raised $750 million led by Excel and they're priced at $15.75 billion today. But today we dig into the inference market, what to come, what no one sees that everyone should see, and so much more.

我们失去了新毕业生，他们去了那些实验室，拿到两千多万美元之类的。我是说，这些人都非常出色，特别出色。我不想卖掉这家公司，因为我大可以转头就创办 Modal 2。We've lost new grats going to, you know, some of the labs for like 20 plus million. I mean, these are exceptional people. Exceptional. I don't want to sell this company cuz I would just go and start Modal 2.

准备好了。埃里克，听着，伙计。很高兴你能来参加节目。刚才我在楼下和你聊天时就在想，当大家都做自己时，你就能感觉到这会是一场精彩的节目。刚才的交谈太棒了，接下来我们也会玩得很开心。谢谢你来参加节目。Ready to go. Eric, listen, dude. It is so great to have you on the show. You know, I was sitting downstairs with you chatting before and I was just like, you can feel when it's going to be a good show because people are themselves. And that was an amazing conversation and we're going to have a lot of fun. So, thank you for joining me.

能来到这里真是太令人兴奋了。我听过很多期节目，现在身处其中，感觉有点不真实。It's so exciting to be here. I mean, I've listened to so many episodes. It's it's kind of surreal to be inside of it right now.

那真是太棒了。就像我跟你说的，你创办公司的时候本可以给我发个短信，说不定我现在就能稍微富一点了。That's really awesome. As I said to you, you you could have text me when you started the company and maybe I would have been a little bit richer.

是啊，不过那时候你大概还不认识我。不认识。不过我本来会很乐意再投资另一套产品。嗯，我想先从这个问题开始：昨晚我和扎克·弗兰克尔聊天，他提到了你的童年，以及你早年成功和非凡能力的一些迹象。你是怎么爱上科技的？作为一名投资者，看到你童年时的哪些表现会让我感到兴奋？Yeah, but you probably didn't know about me then. No, I didn't. But I would have welcomed investing in another suite. Um, I wanted to start with I was talking to Zach Frankle last night and he said about your childhood and like early indicators of success and like exceptional ability. How did you fall in love with technology? And for me as an investor, what would have made me excited in seeing your childhood?

埃里克八岁时如何爱上编程的How Erik Fell in Love With Coding at Eight Years Old

我大概是1992年左右开始写代码的，那时候我八岁。呃，我特别喜欢。你知道，就像是那种……我意识到自己可以控制电脑。我有一台 Mac Plus，你知道，内存大概有1兆字节什么的。[嗤笑] 嗯，然后我就开始做游戏。我的意思是，那些游戏烂透了，但你知道，我现在回想起来，某种程度上真的特别感激。回顾我的童年，我的朋友们那时候都在收集冰球卡什么的，那就是他们的爱好。而我的爱好是编程，你知道，而现在我靠这个赚了很多钱。I started coding 1992 or something like that. I was eight. Uh, and just loved it. you know, it's like one of those things like I realized you can control computers. I had a Mac Plus, you know, 1 megabyte of RAM or whatever. [snorts] Um, and yeah, started making games and like I mean they were terrible, but you know, it's just I I think back at like in a way I'm like so grateful. I look back at like my childhood. My my friends, they were like collecting hockey cards or whatever. That was like their hobby. Like my hobby was programming, you know, and and now I make a lot of money from it.

这不是有点疯狂吗？你知道，仔细想想，我居然能靠做从八岁起就是我爱好的事情赚很多钱，这简直太不可思议了。所以我真的特别感激，你知道，我爱上了科技和编程，然后在十六七岁的时候开始参加编程竞赛，特别有意思。Isn't that kind of crazy? like you you know when you think about it like the fact that I can make a lot of money like doing what what was my hobby since I was eight it's kind of nuts. So I I I'm just so grateful about you know the fact that I fell in love with technology and coding and then you know I started doing programming competitions when I was 16 17 and so much fun.

Modal 是你的第一家公司吗？还是说这是你的第一家公司？为什么花了这么久？Modal was your first company or is your first company why did it take so long?

我觉得，我人生中一贯的模式就是，我对自己总是不够有信心。嗯，我缺少的很多东西里，有一点自信，也有一些钱。不过，直到我大概36、37岁时，才创办了 Modal。我想，我从来都不一定是特别想创办一家公司。事情更像是，我只是看到了市场上一个巨大的机会。我当时几乎在想：为什么没人做这个？这想法明明这么显而易见。于是我就想，也许我该创办一家公司。然后你知道，五年过去了，我们走到了今天。嗯，进展相当不错。回头看，我想我或许应该更早些创办公司。I think the consistent pattern in my life is like I never had quite enough confidence in myself. Um, and a lot of it was that was missing was just the confidence a little bit the money too. But, uh, so it wasn't until I was like 36, 37, I started modal. And I think I I don't think I've ever wanted to necessarily start a company. It was like one of those things where like I just saw this big opportunity in the market. I almost thought to myself like why is no one else doing this? Such an obvious idea. And and that led me to think like maybe I should start a company. And then, you know, five years later, here we are. uh has gone pretty well. I think in hindsight maybe I should have started much earlier.

你是否希望自己曾经拥有过……Do you wish you had

我看有些斯坦福的学生，他们才21岁，我就觉得他们可能自信过头了。你懂我意思吧？他们好像觉得自己要征服世界了，可他们才21岁。呃，我觉得理想的年龄可能是32岁左右吧，我也不太确定。那时候你会多一些经验，知道怎么跟人打交道，知道怎么招人、怎么开除人，诸如此类的事。嗯，我不知道自己二十多岁时会不会是个好创始人。I look at some of these like Stanford kids and they're like 21 and like I kind of feel like they maybe have too much confidence. You know what I mean? Like they're like you know think they're going to take over the world and they're 21. Uh I think I think the ideal age is maybe like I don't know 32 or something like that. You have a little bit more experience. You know how to navigate people. You know how to hire people. You know how to fire people. Like all these things. Um I I don't I don't know if I would have been a good founder like in my 20s.

为什么埃里克拒绝“吃玻璃”的创始人叙事Why Erik Rejects the “Eating Glass” Founder Narrative

在我们深入探讨市场以及背后的方方面面之前，我们刚才在楼下聊过。嗯，我们经常听人说，创办公司就像在吃玻璃一样。很艰难，也很痛苦。你怎么看这种说法？Before we get into the market and everything beneath that, we were chatting downstairs. Um we often hear that founding companies is like eating glass. It's hard. It's painful. How do you feel about those?

哥们儿，我特别讨厌那种想法。我就是不明白。就像你每天都在吃玻璃一样。那你为什么还要这么做呢？我不知道。你是指望最后能得到什么神奇的奖赏吗，比如一块巨大的饼干？我一直都无法理解这种心态。我觉得很多人都有这种心态：我要忍受痛苦，然后最后会得到一个巨大的回报。我不知道，我不会那样想。我每天去上班都很享受。当然，也会有艰难的时候。比如说，你得进行一些艰难的谈话，可能还得解雇员工，也可能得做些很难的事。但从大局来看，我是说，人生就是这样。而我享受生活。我也享受打造一家公司。Dude, I I hate that stuff. It's like I I don't get it. Like you're eating glass like every day. Like why are you doing it then? Like I don't know. You expect some like magic reward like some big cookie in the end. Like I never understood that mindset. I think it's like this mindset that a lot of people have. I'm gonna suffer pain and then there's going to be this big reward in the end. I don't know. I don't think about it that way. I enjoy every day I go to work. Of course, there's like hard times. Like there's, you know, you have to have hard conversations, maybe fire people, maybe like do hard things, but like in the grand scheme of things, like I mean, such is life. And I enjoy life. I I enjoy building a company.

而且我不，我不觉得这是说我们有一天就要把这家公司彻底扭转过来；我希望能在这件事上投入20年、30年、40年、50年。And I don't I don't think of it as like in one one day we're going to flip this company and be I I hope to work on this for 20 30 40 50 years.

我玩得很开心。我不想卖掉这家公司，因为那样我就会去创办 Model 2。I'm having so much fun. I don't want to sell this company cuz I would just go and start Model 2.

你真的不愿意吗？You really wouldn't?

不，我没有。No, I don't.

挺有意思的。我曾有机会卖掉 20 VC。呃，这档节目一直很成功。我们之前说过，我可以把所有东西以大约 8000 万美元的价格卖掉，而我拥有它 100% 的所有权；对我来说，那是一大笔钱。It's funny. I had the chance to sell 20 VC. Uh the show's always successful. We said earlier I to share everything for like 80 million and I own 100% of it and that for me is a lot

妈妈和我一起去散步，她问：“你明天打算做什么？”我说：“我会开始做‘19分钟VC’。”她说：“好啊。”and my mother went for a walk with me and she said, "What would you do tomorrow?" I said, "I'd start the 19minute VC." She was like, "Yeah."

她就说：“别卖。”是啊。你会怎么做？我不觉得钱一定能让人快乐。我的意思是，多少还是能的。比如，有点钱是好事，但你知道，过了某个程度之后……我喜欢创造东西。She was like, "Don't sell." Yeah. What would you do? I don't think money necessarily makes you happy. I mean, a little bit. Like it's good to have some money but you know beyond a point like what you know I like building stuff.

你真是个贴心的人。You're such a sweet

我热爱科技。我热爱编程。真是太有趣了。I love technology. I love coding. So much fun.

你真是太贴心了。You're such a sweet.

那是，那是瑞典式的吗？那是瑞典人的思维方式吗？也许是吧。Is that is that Swedish? Is that Swedish mentality? Maybe it is.

是啊。从来没有哪个美国人一上来就说这不是为了钱。Yeah. Never has an American come on before and said it's not about money.

我的意思是，我确实有点在乎钱，但也许你说得对，因为我觉得在瑞典人的思维方式里，这就像是一种自我实现。做自己喜欢的事，在某种意义上就像是最高形式的荣耀。可以是音乐，也可以是诗歌，什么都行。感觉几乎无关紧要。I mean I do care about money a little bit but maybe you're right cuz I do think in Swedish mentality it's like it's like self-actualization. Like doing what you enjoy is like kind of the highest form of prestige in a certain way. And it could be music, it could be like poetry, whatever. Like it almost doesn't matter.

你做什么事情时并不享受？What do you do that you don't enjoy?

埃里克为何讨厌筹款Why Erik Hates Fundraising

是啊，说实话，我有点讨厌募资。我是说，也还好吧。我也说不好。就是，如果遇到不错的人，我其实挺喜欢的，但这事儿还是挺有挑战的。你得拒绝很多人。我想这算是个幸福的烦恼吧，不过你知道，总的来说，它……它就是……Yeah, I kind of hate fundraising, honestly. I mean, it's fine. I don't know. Like, I enjoy it when it's like good people, but it's like kind of challenging. You have to say no to a lot of people. I guess that's a good problem to have, but you know, in general, it's it's

哦，你得拒绝很多人。哦，埃里克，Oh, you have to say no to a lot of people. Oh, Eric,

我知道。我知道。这是件很可怕的事。I know. I know. That's a horrible thing.

拉里，你最多只能有1000万、5000万。哦，你从来没做过演示文稿吧？Larry, you can only have 10 million, 50 million. Oh, you've never done a deck, have you?

为什么埃里克从未制作过融资路演演示文稿Why Erik Has Never Made a Pitch Deck

我从来没做过融资路演材料。呃，我们之前做的每一轮融资，我都喜欢在筹钱之前很早就开始认识对方。所以，我们做的每一轮融资，最近一次嘛，我们昨天刚宣布和 Accel 达成了一笔交易。我和 Accel 的 Rich 和 Gonzalo 聊了，我想至少有一年了。然后在某个时候，你知道，我们就想，实际上，你知道，我们可以拿些钱。那条款怎么样？我们来讨论一下条款吧。I I've never made a pitch deck. uh every every every round we've done so far, it's I I like to get to know people well in advance of of raising money. So So every round we've done, I mean, most recently we announced a Dun yesterday with Excel. I've been speaking to Rich and Gonzalo at Excel for I think at least a year and at the at some point, you know, we're like actually, you know what, we could take some money like what are the terms like let's discuss terms

为什么创始人不应总是追求估值最大化Why Founders Shouldn’t Always Maximise Valuation

之后进展得非常快，因为我们已经建立了这种关系。你怎么看待价格优化？这是不是一场尽可能把价格定高的游戏？and then it happened very quickly because we already had that relationship. How do you think about price optimization? Is it a game of getting the highest price?

不，我不这么认为。我觉得可能到了后期，它会变得更像一种大宗商品，就像钱本身一样。但我觉得在早期，比如说，原因有好几个：一个是激励机制不匹配，风投总是想投远超公司所需的钱。呃，而你因此就会承受很大的股权稀释。作为股东，这可不好。嗯，另一方面，我觉得你其实是想有所保留，而且通常以较低的估值少融资一些会更好，这样就能让风投对下一轮融资保持期待。No, I don't think so. I I think maybe in later stages it becomes a little bit more of a commodity like the money itself. But but I think in the early days like like I mean for several reasons like one is that there's a misaligned incentive like VCs always want to put in way more money than a company needs. Uh and and and that you know you just take on a lot of dilution. It's not good as a shareholder. Um, but the other thing is like you actually want to hold back I think and and it's often better to raise a lot less money at a lower valuation and then keep the VCs hungry for the next round.

我能问一下吗？这一代不正是资本占据主导地位、而且你需要的资金远超自己想象的时代吗？你说过，风投愿意给你的钱比公司实际需要的还多。我还以为，AI 终于成了风投资金所需要的那个出口呢。Can I ask you is this not the generation though where actually capital is the mode and you need so much more money than you think. You said that VCs want to give you more money than the company needs. I thought AI was finally the output exhaust for venture dollars that was needed.

我觉得在市场上，有些时候你会受到资金限制。我们公司大部分时间都没有受到资金限制。我们的资金使用效率非常高，每个月只烧掉几百万美元。我的意思是，虽然只是……你知道，这也不是小数目。我很珍惜这笔钱。I think there are times in the market where you are capital constrained. We have not been capital constrained for most of the time of the company. We've been extremely capital efficient. We burn only a few million a month. I mean only like you know it's a lot of money. I have respect for the money.

你每个月要烧掉几百万。You burn a few million a month.

不，我的意思是直到去年左右。现在我们得花很多钱来扩充产能。嗯。No, I mean up until like last year. Now we have to spend a lot of money on capacity. Um

你现在每个月的开销是多少？how much do you burn a month now?

很多。我的意思是，我们实际上按损益表口径是盈利的，但现金流相当为负，因为我们得花很多钱来买 GPU、扩充算力。呃，所以在公司发展中，这是一个不同的阶段，我们对资本的看法也有所不同。资本——我不想把它称为护城河，因为你知道，我觉得人们会随口用这个词——[嗤笑]——来指一些东西，但对我来说，“护城河”有非常严格的定义。呃，不过当然，现阶段资本确实有帮助。A lot. I mean we actually are profitable on a P&L basis but like cash flow is quite negative because we have to spend a lot of money on on on getting GPUs and building out capacity. Uh and so that is a different period in you know in the company and how we think about capital. capital is I don't want to call it a moat because you know like I I feel like people you know throw around that world word like [snorts] to mean like things that you know mo to me has like a very strict definition uh but but you know certainly helps capital helps at this point

为什么早期初创公司并没有真正的护城河Why Early-Stage Startups Don’t Really Have Moats

对你来说，护城河的定义是什么？what's the moat definition for you

我的意思是，对我来说，护城河就像是你去读《七种力量》之类的书。那是本好书，但我觉得，人们读了之后就会变得不切实际。他们会想：“对，我们刚开始创办这家公司，就已经有这么多护城河了。”你在早期根本不会有什么护城河，你懂吧。I mean moat to me is like you go read like seven powers or like one of those things it's a good book but but I I think you know then people read that and they get delusional like you know they're like yeah we're starting this company has all these moes you never have emotes in the early days like you know like

Google 想做什么都可以。Google could do anything they wanted to.

谷歌能做到。对。不过你知道，就像那七种……我都不记得了。什么资源垄断、市场力量之类的。反正这些东西要等你做了十年才会出现。你知道吗，我总会想起 Ben Thompson 很久以前写的一篇博客，讲的是 Snap 和那个“姜饼人策略”。你知道这个吗？大意就是，Snap 没有护城河，他们只是跑得更快。他们就像那个姜饼人。而且我总会想起这个。我觉得这对如今几乎所有创业公司来说都是真的：你就是得比其他所有人行动得更快。Google could do. Yeah. But it's also like you know like what are the seven I don't even remember. It's like cornering resources like market power like whatever. It's like none of those things happen until you're like 10 years in. You know I there's an old blog post I always come back to it by Ben Thompson. It talks about Snap and the like the gingerbread man strategy. Do you know this thing? And it's like the whole point is like Snap doesn't have a moat. They just run faster. Like they're the gingerbread man. And I actually always come back to that. I think that's so true like for almost every startup these days. It's like you just have to like move faster than everyone else.

为什么品牌在 AI 基础设施领域比以往任何时候都更重要Why Brand Matters More Than Ever in AI Infrastructure

实际上，我觉得如今投资时有三件事很重要，比如第一是团队。他们是不是顶尖的 1% 团队？I actually think like the three things that matter today when I invest is like one team. Are they top 1% team?

是的。Yeah.

第二，产品决策的速度——非常具体地说。你看，就像今天的直觉。功能发布的速度确实令人印象深刻，而且他们非常……然后第三是品牌。Two speed of product decision-m very specifically. You look at like instinct today. The speed of feature shipping is really very impressive and they're very and then three is brand.

是的。我认为，对我来说，这些就是构成护城河可防御性的三个决定因素，不过它们其实是一个整体。Yeah. And I think those are the three determinants to me of defensibility moat but it's a kind of package.

是啊，是啊。我是说，我还是不知道自己会不会这么做，但我多少同意你的观点。比如，我觉得品牌——我不想把它称作护城河，但品牌的价值确实，我觉得，已经大幅提升了。我能不能说句不太好听的话？Yeah. Yeah. I mean again I don't know if I would but but I kind of agree your point like I think brand I don't want to call it a moat but it it's it's actually I think the value of brand has gone up a lot. Can I be a dick?

好的，请。Yeah please.

你觉得 Modal 的品牌打造做得好吗？Do you think modal have done well with brand?

我觉得做得相当不错。我认为它与开发者体验、产品、网站、视觉识别等方方面面紧密相连。我们在整体呈现上做了很多工作，包括活动策划以及视觉风格和观感。I think pretty well. I think we have it's coupled with the developer experience and the product and the website and the visual identity and all these things. We just did a lot of how we package it, the event and the visual look and feel.

你觉得你的品牌比 Base 10 和烟花更大吗？Do you think you have a bigger brand than base 10 and fireworks?

我觉得我们有这个。我觉得我们的氛围真的、真的很好。我是个重度网民。人们发关于 Modal 的推文要多得多。我觉得我们的社区氛围更浓一些，也觉得我们周围的氛围好得多。不过，我对那些公司还是很警惕，对竞争也很警惕。当然我会关注。我当然会看到所有关于我们竞争对手的推文。你知道，不过这很重要：每个人都想成为这个社区的一部分。你知道，我觉得人们误解的一点是，我很喜欢和 Jeb 一起搞类型安全。I think we have that. I think we have like really really good vibes. Like I'm I'm terminally online. Like people tweet like way more about modal. I think there's like a little bit more of a community. I think there's like much better vibes around us. Like but like I am paranoid about those companies. Like I am paranoid about competition. Of course I track it. Like I of course like I I I see everything that gets tweeted and about our competitors and you know it's but but this is important like get everyone wants to be a part of the community. Everyone you know what I think is like that the like people misunderstand is I I love type safe with Jeb.

是的Yeah

因为就像，所有人都想克隆杰夫。没人想走上台，穿一件[ __ ]粉色皮草大衣，然后用一种疯疯癫癫的方式大谈特谈“Jevolution”。对我来说，品牌就是这样：那个人就像是在完全不同的层面上玩这场游戏。我觉得这对如今的公司来说特别真实——你必须好好想想这一点。cuz like everyone wants to clone Jeff. No one wants to get up on stage and wear a [ __ ] pink fur coat and just like talk about the Jevolution in an unhinged way. That is what brand to me is like it's like that guy is like he's playing the game on a whole different level and I think it's just like so like true about like companies today like you have to think about that

那你能不能说说为什么？因为他真实、与众不同？我觉得是这样。我觉得你只需要塑造一种个性，得想清楚你的公司是什么样的个性，然后保持一致，营造一种势头、一种社区氛围，让人觉得这是一件很酷的事。人们想用你的产品，因为你是市面上很酷的产品之一。你试过 Modal 吗？挺酷的。那么，Modal 做了什么，才建立起这种感觉，而 Baseten 和 Fireworks 没做到呢？what so can you jump out why cuz he's authentic and different I think so I I think you just have to create a personality you kind of have to like figure out like what is the personality of your company and just be consistent and create like almost like a sense of movement a sense of like community like this is something cool and and people want to use you because you're one of the cool products out there like have you tried modal It's pretty cool. What what has modal done then that base 10 and fireworks haven't to build that?

我想我们是从开发者体验入手的。我们当时有一种非常明确的 PLG 产品市场契合度，也就是产品增长：用户从基层自发地涌入，只要在产品上注册就行。我觉得，曾在 Spotify 工作的消费级产品背景，对我思考如何打造现在这家实际上销售技术产品的 B2B 公司非常重要。从某种意义上说，这是个非常无聊的品类，但我认为，拥有鲜明个性、稍微有点锋芒，是营造那种势头、激发兴奋感并让人觉得与众不同的重要方式。我希望这种体验从你打开我们的网站、开始试用产品的那一刻就开始，让你立刻感受到它与众不同——那种神奇的时刻。I think we started with the developer experience. So that was and we had a very like serious or like very clear sort of PLG product market fit product growth in the sense that people came bottoms up. They just sign up on a product. I think the consumer background of coming from Spotify is very important in how I thought about building what's now B2B company selling tech effectively. In a way, it's like a very boring category, but I think, you know, like having personality and and having, you know, a little bit of an edge is a big part of how you create that sort of movement and that sort of like sense of excitement and the feeling that you're different. And I wanted to start the moment you go to our website and the moment you try the product and you just feel that it's different, the magic moment.

为什么推理正在成为新的云计算基础设施Why Inference Is Becoming the New Cloud

我想问一下，我们刚才谈到了那三家不同的服务提供商。推理作为一个市场，有很多不同的投机者在谈论它。展望未来五年，你觉得推理市场会如何发展？首先，我认为推理会成为一个规模极其庞大的市场，基本上就像新的云计算。但我不认为推理本身可能就是你需要的一切。我非常认同的一点是，推理必须与一整套不同的产品搭配在一起，比如后训练、沙箱、智能体相关的东西，以及各种其他类型的推理，比如低延迟推理、批量推理。Can I ask you, we've spoken about the three different providers there. Inference as a market has many different speculators commenting on it. When you look at the next 5 years, how does the inference market play out? First of all, I I think inference is going to be an enormously large market. It's like the new cloud basically. And but I don't think inference in itself is maybe like the only thing you need. One of the things that I feel very strongly about is like it has to come with a whole set of different like a lot of other products. it has to come with post training, sandboxes, agentic stuff, all kinds of you know other types of inference like low latency inference, batch inference.

呃，所以，所以，我们在搭建那个平台，而且顺便说一下，我们过去五年来一直在做这件事。Uh so so so building that platform and we by the way we've been working on this for the last 5 years.

为什么纯推理会沦为商品化业务Why Pure Inference Becomes a Commodity Business

我觉得，对我来说，你知道，这不是护城河，但它是一项非常强大的技术，也是一个非常难以构建的基础设施产品。I think that to me is you know not a mo but it's a very strong tech it's a very hard product to build infrastructure.

为什么你需要拥有那么丰富的产品组合？否则你就只是处在一个压缩层里。对，对。因为否则你卖的就只是大宗商品式的产品，我觉得。就像，如果你只是把 token 按美元卖出去，那就没有转换成本，你懂吧？人们可以直接换另一家供应商，对吧？那你就只是陷入一场竞相压价的恶性竞争。但如果你把它和周围所有这些东西结合起来，比如沙盒、后训练、强化学习等等这些东西，你实际上就能打造出一整套工具。没人想要买一个只会一招的东西，你懂吧？人们想买的是一系列不同的东西，他们想买的是一整套工具，基本上能让他们在此基础上构建出出色的 AI 应用，对吧？Why do you need to have the breadth of that product set otherwise you're just in a compression layer? Yeah. Yeah. Cuz otherwise you're just selling commodity product, I think. And like if you're just selling like tokens for dollars, there's no switching cost, you know? People can just switch a different provider, right? It's then it's you just it's just a race to the bottom. But if you couple it with all these other things around it, sandboxes and post training and and and and reinforcement learning and all these things like you can actually create a a whole set of tools like no one wants to build, you know, buy a single trick pony. people want to buy a portfolio of different things like they want to buy, you know, whole suite of tools that basically lets them build amazing AI applications on top of it, right?

而且，对我来说，底层基础设施本身就带来了很大的差异化优势，也让它在市场上有很强的持久力。构建所有这些产品所需的基础设施很难被复制。And and that to me and the and the infrastructure underneath is a lot of uh uh differentiation, a lot of you know staying power in the market. It's very hard to copy like the infrastructure required to build all of these products.

推理领域的毛利率将从何而来Where the Gross Margins in Inference Will Come From

关于推理市场，有什么是大家没注意到的，或者说你觉得很显而易见、但很少看到有人评论的？我觉得，关于推理市场，有一点是大家没注意到的：从长远来看，这个领域有很大的毛利空间，因为你可以围绕它构建各种东西，比如各种沙箱、各种智能体相关的东西、工作流、呃，后训练、强化学习。如果这些都做起来，实际上有非常大的赚钱机会。它会成为一个拥有软件行业利润率的市场吗？因为我们现在看到的利润率大约在 25% 到 40% 之间。这算是传统参与者的水平。我不知道你们是不是也这样，但这大致是推理服务商普遍的利润率。嗯，随着你们掌握的环节越来越多，利润率能达到 70% 吗？What does no one see about the inference market or you don't see commented on much that is very obvious to you? One thing that people don't see about the inference market is I actually think in the long term there is so much gross margin opportunity in the space because you can build all these things around it. All the sandboxes, all the agentic stuff, workflows, uh post- training, reinforcement learning. If you do all those things, there's actually so much opportunity to make money. Is it a market that has software margins? Cuz we're looking at margins now in the 25 to 40% range. That's kind of traditional players. I don't know if that's yours, but that's kind of what inference providers are generally. Um, do do they go to 70 as you own more and more of the stuff?

我觉得，基本上现在几乎没有哪家公司还能像你知道的十年前硅谷那样，拥有软件行业曾经常见的那种90%以上的利润率了。我觉得那种情况基本已经消失了。原因其实几乎是由拓扑结构决定的：现在有一整套供应商堆栈，对吧？如今有应用、有模型、有基础设施、有云，还有英伟达。所以，客户在堆栈顶端支付的一美元，必须流经许多不同层级，而每一层可能都会拿走大概20%到30%的毛利。因此，我觉得这里有很大的利润空间，也有很多赚大钱的机会。我的意思是，这个领域非常庞大，但收益也要分摊到堆栈中的许多层级。I think basically almost no company today has software margins anymore like what you used to see in like Silicon Valley in the you know 10 years ago with this like 90% margins plus I think that's basically gone and the reason is actually almost like topological it's like you have this like stack of vendors right like today you have applications you have models you have infrastructure you have cloud you have Nvidia and so when a customer pays a dollar at the top of the stack it has to flow through a lot of different layers and at every layer there's going maybe, you know, 20% 30% gross margins. So, I think there's a lot of margin opportunity and there's a lot of opportunity to to to make a lot of money. I mean, the space is so big, but you're also splitting it across a lot of layers in the stack.

所以，我的意思是，你知道，那种软件毛利率高达 90% 的企业已经不复存在了。我认为，从长远来看，Modal 有机会达到 40%、50%、甚至 60% 的利润率，但我们永远不可能达到软件行业那种利润率。So, I mean, you know, like the the 90% software margin businesses are gone. I I think Modal has an opportunity long-term to get to 40 50 60% margins, but we're never going to get to softer margins.

为什么推理市场将分化为专业化产品Why the Inference Market Will Fragment Into Specialized Products

你对推理市场的未来有什么大胆的预测，觉得很多人会不同意？我觉得，对推理市场的一个预测是，它会分化成很多不同的领域，因为过去……市场变得太大了。我，我觉得没人预料到——包括我在内，我不觉得有人预料到它会这么大，规模大概是我曾经想象的 10 倍甚至 100 倍。对我来说，这意味着专业化会有很大的发展空间，比如低延迟、高延迟、各种类型的微调和后训练。我觉得会出现一些古怪的新技术，让你用少得多的资源就能做到这些；还会有新硬件，以及各种各样的东西。What's a wild prediction you have on the future of the inference market that you think many people would disagree with? I think one prediction about the inference market is going to split into a lot of different things because the market got so big in the last I I don't think anyone expected me included I don't think anyone expected it to be you know so big it's like 10x or 100x bigger than I ever thought and that to me means there's going to be so much room for specialization low latency high latency like various types of fine-tuning and post training I think there's going to be some wacky new technologies that let you do it with way less resources new hardware like all kinds of different things

不好意思，这难道不和你刚才所说的相矛盾吗？你说需要把所有环节都掌握在自己手里，并拥有如此广泛的产品线；可如果规模大到需要真正的专业化分工，那又该怎么说呢？I'm really sorry does that not go against what you just said about the need to own it all and have that breadth of product if it's so much larger that you need real specialization

按产品进行专业化，我认为现在会分化出许多不同的产品。我们可以构建其中很多产品，并把它们全部托管在 Modal 上，这让我非常兴奋，因为会有很多不同的产品，而企业会需要这些产品：某个产品需要低延迟推理，另一个产品需要批量推理，还有一个产品需要我们提供的沙箱；他们还会用某个产品对自己的模型进行预训练。你知道，可能是某些特定领域的音频模型之类的。我们做的事情远不止大语言模型推理。specialization by product I think it's going to fragment into a lot of different products now we can build a lot of those products and host it all under modal and that to me is very exciting cuz a lot of different you know there's going to be a lot of different products that companies are going to need for one product they're going to need low latency inference for one product it's going to they're going to need batch inference for one product they're going to need sandboxes which we have for one product they're going to do pre-training their own models you know maybe it's a you certain specialized, you know, audio models or whatever. Like we do a lot of stuff besides LM inference.

嗯，所以在我看来，这带来了很多机会，让我们能够重新思考 AI 时代的云是什么样子，解构云，并为这个软件新时代重新构建云。Uh and and so that to me that creates a lot of opportunity to basically kind of rethink what a cloud looks like in the era of AI and and kind of deconstruct the cloud and rebuild it for this new era of software.

我能问一下你之前提到的用 GPU 扩充算力的事吗？Can I ask you earlier you said about building capacity with GPUs?

是的。Yeah.

今天做那件事是什么感觉？有报道说的那么疯狂吗？What's it like doing that today? Is it as crazy as reports suggest?

GPU 的“露天毒品市场”里Inside the “Open-Air Drug Market” for GPUs

所以，这确实挺疯狂的。三月份我在圣何塞参加了 GTC，也就是英伟达的大型大会。我会把那形容成一个露天毒品市场，只不过交易的不是毒品，而是 GPU。你到处跑，忙着跟 500 家不同的云服务商谈。你会问：“你们有 GPU 吗？拜托，给我弄点……”最后你会发现自己做成了很多笔交易。这种能力是我们必须逐渐培养出来的。我觉得 Modal 的部分价值就在于，客户不必操心这些事。我们会在幕后处理所有 GPU 交易这些脏活累活。So it it is pretty crazy. I spent some time in March uh at GTC Nvidia's big conference in San Jose. I I would describe that as like an open air drug market, but GPUs instead of uh drugs. Uh you're running around, you know, working talking to 500 different cloud vendors. You're like, do you have GPUs? Like, please get and and like, you know, in the end you come out like you do a lot of deals and and and that's something we've had to develop the muscle. I think part of the value prop of modal is like our customers don't have to think about that. We do the dirty work of doing all the GPU deals under the hood.

我们目前与 25 个不同的 Neo 云服务商合作。你知道，我们现在掌控的可能是全球算力的 0.1% 左右什么的，我甚至都不知道具体数字。但我对长期目标的想法是，随着我们掌控全球越来越多的算力，就能汇聚这些算力，也汇聚另一端的需求，然后极其高效地管理算力和需求。We work with 25 different Neo clouds over you know right now we control like you know 0.1% or whatever I don't even know the number of like the world's compute but like my like you know crazy like you know how I think about the the long-term goal is like as we control more and more of the world's compute you can aggregate that capacity and aggregate demand on the other side and and manage that capacity and demand extremely efficiently.

所以对我来说，这就像是一件我们确实认为自己能够做到的事，可以填补一个很大的空白。So that to me is like something we actually think we can do we can fill a big gap.

为什么 Modal 想要整合全球的计算资源Why Modal Wants to Aggregate the World’s Compute

作为那个聚合层，这能让你做些什么呢？嗯，我们自己构建了很多基础设施，比如我们并没有使用 Kubernetes、Docker 之类的东西。我们构建了自己的容器文件、自己的文件系统、自己的容器运行时、自己的调度器，还基本上自己开发了管理容量的方式。这让我们能够把全世界的计算资源都当作一个大型资源池来使用。所以你想想，我们已经有好几千名付费客户，而且随着时间推移，这个数字还会不断增长。What does that allow you to do being that aggregation layer? Well, so we built a lot of our infrastructure ourselves like we we we don't use Kubernetes and Docker and things like that. We built our own container files. We built our own file system. We built our own container runtime. We built our own scheduler. We built our own uh uh basically how we managed the capacity. And that that enables us to to basically treat like all of the world's compute as one big pool of capacity. And so if you if you think about the fact that there's you know we already have many thousand paying customers and and over time it just grows and grows.

这些客户各自的需求都很不固定，他们的工作负载也会随着一天中的时间而变化，可能还会出现突发峰值。单独来看，每个客户的需求都相当难以预测；但如果把所有客户汇总起来，整体需求就会变得非常平稳，而这正是我们能够极其高效地管理的。Each of those customers have like very sort of variable requirements or like their their uh their workloads kind of vary over the day and they have maybe bursts and and and in each individually they're like very sort of unpredictable but if you pull all of those customers together you end up with a very sort of smooth uh overall demand and that is something we can manage extremely efficiently.

呃，所以，Modal 的一个有效卖点是，除了我们可以帮你扩展规模之外，你甚至都不必做容量规划，只要来找我们，我们就能给你 100 个 GPU。我觉得这太棒了。比如说 Typesafe，回到这个例子，他们上线之前很久我们就跟他们聊过，但他们在 Modal 上一夜之间就上线了，而我们甚至都没意识到。就这样，他们扩展了规模，我们给了他们一大堆 GPU，这一切都是自动完成的。我觉得这种神奇的体验正是大家很看重 Modal 的地方：我们能在很短时间内给他们提供大量 GPU，而且能应对这种波动性。比如你选择我们，就不必提前锁定一整块 GPU 资源，锁上 3 年，也不必确定具体需要多少；我们采用按需付费的方式，你可以随时扩容或缩容，按 GPU 秒付费。Uh and and so one of the valid props of modal besides like we we can scale up with you is also you don't even have to do capacity planning just come to us you we give you 100 GPUs I I think it's so amazing going back to types safe for instance like they we we we didn't even we had talked to them I think a long time ago before they launched but you know they launched overnight on modal and we we weren't even aware of it just like scale up and we gave them a ton of GPUs uh and it just happened automatically so so that magic I think is is something that is people really value with modal is like we can give them a lot of GPUs on very short notice and we can handle that sort of variable like if you go to us you don't have to lock up you know like a rectangular block of GPUs over 3 years and you have to know the exact number like it's it's pay as you go you scale up and down you pay per GPU second

Modal 如何预测 GPU 需求环比增长 34%How Modal Forecasts GPU Demand Growing 34% Month-on-Month

那你们采购 GPU 时是怎么做预测的？毕竟你们不想让大量过剩库存一直压在账上。how do you do GPU buying in terms of forecasting then because you don't want to have an insane excess of supply just sitting on your books

完全没错，GPU 目前的交货周期是三到四个月。所以，我们基本上会做线性或指数外推，并查看所有客户的总体需求。我们的客户群非常多元化。实际上，你可以很好地汇总查看整体需求，并根据月增长率进行预测——过去12个月里，月增长率大约是30%到40%。然后你把这个趋势向未来推算三到四个月，结果大概会是现在的2到3倍。于是你就去采购相应的算力，并确保逐步扩容，有时候……totally yeah the the GPU uh lead times right now is three to four months. So, so we basically do a straight line or exponential line extrapolation and we look at an aggregate across all our customers. We have a very diversified set of customers. You can actually look at the demand in aggregate pretty well and predict based on monthly growth rates uh which have been about 30 40% month-to-month uh for the last 12 months and you just project that you know 3 to 4 months into the future you end up with like 2 to 3x you go out and you know buy that capacity and make sure to ramp up and and sometimes

你能直接购买那部分容量吗？and can you just buy that capacity?

可以。是的，我的意思是，我觉得有一点误解，好像我们已经没有算力了。我的意思是，英伟达每个月出货的 GPU 数量简直惊人。我不知道每个月有多少个 10 万台规模的 Blackwell 集群在安装。价格确实涨了。要拿到同样数量的 GPU，你得付更多钱。我不想说这就像一个高效市场，但如果你愿意比别人出更多的钱，就能拿到很多 GPU。You can. Yeah. I mean, I I think I think there's a little bit of like a misconception that like we're out of capacity. I mean, Nvidia is like shipping like an insane amount of GPUs like every month. I don't know how many 100,000 black holes are getting installed. Prices are up for sure. You have to pay more to get the same amount of GPUs. And I don't want to say it's like an efficient market, but if you're willing to pay more than other people, you can get a lot of GPUs.

有没有一个价格会让你觉得不划算？当然有。但具体到什么程度呢？Is there a price at which it doesn't make sense for you? Of course there is. But like at what point?

我不这么认为。事实上，我觉得我们在 GPU 上其实是净多头，而不是净空头。呃，因为我们可以向客户收取更高的价格；市场实际上有一个市场价。你知道，这里的运作机制不太一样，因为我们锁定的是期限更长的预留资源，然后再以稍短一些的租期租出去。I don't think so. I think in fact like we're actually more long than we're short GPUs. Uh cuz we um you know we we can charge a higher price to our customers like there's effectively a market price and you know we it's like different dynamics cuz we lock up longerterm reservations and and rent them out on slightly shorter duration.

GPU 价格会随着时间发生什么变化？What Happens to GPU Prices Over Time?

嗯，但是你知道，如果标的价格上涨，人们也愿意支付更多。Um but you know if if the underlying price goes up people are also willing to pay more.

完全理解你。价格会随着时间怎么变化？你们的 H100 本来就应该会折旧、降价的。Totally get you. What happens to the price over time? You H100s were meant to depreciate and go down.

我也不知道。是啊。我是说，而且，嗯，我是说，其实吧，还挺有意思的。I have no idea. Yeah. I mean and like I mean actually like it's funny.

好吧，伙计，如果你根本不知道我到底该有什么的话。Well dude if you have no idea what am I meant to have.

你看到 Jensen 了吗？昨天他在伦敦。实际上有人问了他这个问题，他就说：“嗯，显然，需求最终会追上供给——哦，抱歉，是供给最终会追上需求，然后我们再看看价格会怎样。这可能一年后发生，也可能五年后发生。”他说的和我一直告诉大家的一模一样：硬件价格就像重力一样。从长远来看，硬件价格总是会下降。现在，我们正处于一个供给非常短缺的时期，你知道，这意味着价格已经涨上去了。它们可能还会继续涨一年、两年、五年，我也不知道，但最终还是会降下来的。Did you see Jensen? Yesterday he was in London actually someone asked him this question and he's like well obviously like demand is going to catch up with supply or sorry supply is going to catch up with demand eventually and then we'll see what happens with pricing. It might happen in a year it might happen with in 5 years. He said exactly the same thing I always tell people like hardware prices like it's like gravity. Hardware prices always go down in the very long run. Right now we're in a very you know there there's a supply shortage and you know that means that prices have gone up. They may continue to go up for another year, two years, 5 years I don't know but eventually they will come down.

为什么 AI 算力需求仍处于极早期阶段Why AI Compute Demand Is Still Extremely Early

我们现在有多早？因为我，你知道，我用 Instinct 处理所有事情。我在 Instinct 上有 100 多个自动化流程，做的事情简直太疯狂了，从买演唱会门票、策划演出，到帮我母亲处理用药之类的事情。我使用的算力，相当于杰文斯悖论乘以 100。How early are we? Because I, you know, I run Instinct for for everything. I have over 100 automations on Instinct doing things that are just absolutely wild from buying concert tickets to planning shows to helping with like medication for my mother. Um, the amount of compute I am using is Jevans paradox times 100.

是的。Yeah.

如果这对社会中的许多人来说实际上是等同的。If that is equivalent for actually many people in society.

是啊，因为在 WhatsApp 里就能用。不过我们现在到底算早到什么程度？Yeah. because it's accessible within WhatsApp and what how early are we though?

我觉得我们还处在非常早期的阶段。我觉得你说的也是同一回事。我的意思是，嗯，Jens可能也就那样吧。总之，我觉得这些东西的潜在需求实在太大了。你知道，我觉得最终我们会开始遇到新的资本限制，对吧？比如利率在上升，而且我们就是没法足够快地建成数据中心。也许这是件好事，我不知道。我觉得从某种意义上说，这就像是对过度建设的一种保障。不过我也不知道我们能不能把这些东西建得过多，因为需求实在太大了。I think we're very early. I think you're saying the same thing. I mean, yeah, Jeans probably whatever like I think there's just so much latent demand for these things and you know I I think you know eventually we're going to start to run up against new capital constraints right like there's interest rates are going up like we just can't build data centers fast enough. Maybe that's good. I don't know. Like I think in in a way like you know it's a guarantee against like overbuild which but I also don't know if we can overbuild these things because there's just so much demand for it.

是的。Yeah.

我认为未来五年你不可能过度建设。I don't think you can overbuild in the next 5 years.

可能不会。不。不。我我觉得可能发生的情况是，人们会意识到——你知道，Instinct 就是个很好的例子。据说他们目前还不收费，或者还没有营收。所以我觉得这是个很好的例子。不过，显然 Instinct 将来能赚很多钱。但你知道，这就是市场的一种动态。很多公司目前还没有盈利，却在使用大量 GPU。它们最终只是必须开始赚钱。</|im_end|>Probably not. No. No. I I think I think what could happen is like people realize you know Instinct is a good example. Like allegedly they don't you know charge or they don't make revenue yet. So I think it's a good example, but like clearly Instinct can make a ton of money in the future, but so you know that's a dynamic in the market. There's a lot of companies that are not yet making money yet and they're using a lot of GPUs. They just have to eventually start to make money,

专用 AI 硬件会威胁英伟达吗？Does Specialized AI Hardware Threaten Nvidia?

但如果是那样的话，延迟可能会持续一阵子，对吧？而且我们可能会遇到这种情况。but like that that lag could take a while, right? And and that we might run up against that.

你提到了推理市场中的专业化，我们也谈到了英伟达。我们看到芯片市场的专业化程度越来越高。You mentioned the specialization that comes within the inference market and we we spoke about Nvidia there. We're seeing more and more specialization within the chip market.

是的。Yeah.

英伟达如今的业务是否比以往任何时候都更强？还是说，随着市场分化，出现了 Cerebras、Etched、Olix、Fractile 这些此前并不存在的专业化厂商，它的业务其实比以往任何时候都更弱？Is Nvidia's business today stronger than ever? or actually weaker than ever as you see the fragmentation of the market into very specialized players from cerebrous to etch to Olix to fractile that weren't there before.

我觉得你，呃，试图把它说成是非此即彼。我的看法是，我觉得埃里克·维什其实……挺有意思的，情况也一样：所有这些东西都会发展壮大。我觉得英伟达会继续发展壮大，他们会继续推出很棒的芯片。我觉得也会有 Cerebras、Etched 以及其他这些公司推出专用芯片，它们也会发展壮大。所以我觉得这些东西都会有各自的市场。I I I think you're uh try to phrase it as like one versus the other. My my view is like I think Eric Vish was actually it's funny like the same thing like all of these things are going to grow like I think Nvidia is going to keep growing. They're going to keep shipping amazing chips. I think there's also going to be like Cerebras and all these etched and all these other ones like shipping specialized chips and they're also going to grow. So I think there's going to be markets for all of it.

那么，Cerebras 为什么下跌了 30%？So why is Cerebras down 30%.

我不知道。我其实不太关注股市。I don't know. I don't follow really the stock market.

你不关注股市吗？You don't follow the stock market?

不，我基本上是采取一种非常被动的方式，你知道，大多买指数基金，主要是因为我时间有限。我觉得自己没有精力去关注股市。No, I I'm in like a very passive, you know, buy the index mostly because of my own time. Like I don't feel like I have the energy to follow the stock market.

为什么 CUDA 并非英伟达真正的护城河Why CUDA Is Not Nvidia’s Real Moat

CUDA 究竟在多大程度上像大家所说的那样构成护城河？To what extent is CUDA the moat that everyone says it is from?

其实我觉得这有点夸大了。我不认为 CUDA 本身就是护城河。CUDA 用起来其实挺让人头疼的。它的编程模型相当麻烦。不过我确实认为，英伟达的整个生态系统——我觉得你知道，各种内核优化，还有所有这些东西，你知道，像 Torch 这样的东西总是对英伟达的支持远胜其他平台；开源引擎，比如 VLM 和 SLAN，也因此总是对它支持得好得多。所以如今一切都是英伟达优先。这种情况大概还会持续下去。挺有意思的。过去 15 年里，我一直在说，你知道，明年就是非英伟达加速器的天下。I actually I think it's a little overstate. I don't think CUDA itself is the moat. CUDA is actually kind of annoying to work with. It's like a pretty annoying programming model. Uh but I do think all the NVIDIA um the ecosystem is like I I think you know all the kernel optimizations and and all the stuff that you know every every like torch always supports Nvidia you know much better than than anything else and and and the open source engines like VLM and SLAN because of that they always support it much better. So like everything is Nvidia first today. Uh and that's probably going to continue. It's like funny. For the last like 15 years, I've been saying, you know, like next year is the, you know, is the year of non- Nvidia accelerators.

呃，这种情况从来不会一直持续下去。我总是判断错。呃，英伟达刚刚，你知道，证明了自己确实非常有韧性，而且能够主导市场。Uh it never keeps happening. I'm always wrong. Uh Nvidia has just, you know, shown to to be incredibly good at having that staying power and just dominating the market.

新兴云厂商能否成功向技术栈上层拓展，进军推理领域？Can Neo-Clouds Successfully Move Up the Stack Into Inference?

拭目以待吧。我的意思是，现在有 Tranium、TPU、AMD 等等，还有很多其他看起来相当不错的东西，而且它们正在迎头赶上。不过你知道，我还是觉得它们落后不少。We'll see. I mean, there's like Tranium, there's TPUs, there's AMD, there's a lot of other stuff that does look quite good and they're catching up, but you know, I still think they're quite behind.

新兴云厂商在多大程度上算是朋友？因为很多情况下他们都和你们是合作伙伴。我记得你提到过 25，我觉得你说的是 25 吧？他们究竟是朋友还是敌人？你知道，我请过 Nabius 的创始人来做节目，他当时说：“我们要进军推理市场，我们需要掌控全栈。”我不是针对他这么说，我完全理解，但他们到底是朋友，还是敌人？To what extent are the Neo Clouds a friend? Cuz they're partnered with you in a lot of cases. I'm sure as you mentioned I think 25 you said or or a foe you know I had the founder of Nabius on and he was like we're coming for the inference market like we need to own full stack and I don't mean that against him I totally understand it but are they friends or are they they foes

我觉得在创业圈里，大家似乎既是朋友又是对手，彼此之间都有一种挺奇怪的关系。我觉得，包括 Nebulus 在内的一些顶尖新云服务商，正试图向技术栈上游发展。我个人对此多少有些怀疑，因为我觉得，要把核心业务做好，同时又转向不同的市场，是非常困难的。I feel like everyone in startup land is like a friend and a foe at the same time they have this like weird sort of you know relationship with everyone I I think some of the top neoclouds Nebulus included uh they are trying to move up the stack I'm personally somewhat skeptical I think it's like very hard to be good at like your core business and also trying to move into different market at the same time.

呃，Um,

这对他们来说为什么会很难？比如，认为他们无法高效转向推理层的看空逻辑是什么？why would it be hard for them? Like what's the bare case on them being able to move into the inference layer efficiently?

我是有偏见啦，不过我们过去 5 年一直在打造一套极其复杂的基础设施技术栈。我觉得，要复制我们打造的东西非常非常难。I mean, I'm biased, but like we spent the last 5 years building, you know, an incredibly complex infrastructure stack. I think it's very very hard to replicate what we built.

最难的是什么？就是所有这些代码，还有你知道的，围绕文件系统、容器运行时、调度器的一切。比如构建一个系统，能够每分钟创建数百万个沙箱，还能按需扩缩容数万台 GPU，让数十万个任务并发运行。这些都是非常棘手的工程问题。我的意思是，我是个基础设施技术迷，我喜欢干这破事儿——做这个太有意思了，但这些确实都是难题。What's the hardest thing? just all the code and you know everything around the file system the container runtime the scheduler like building the system that can you know place like millions of sandboxes every minute you know scale up and down many many thousands of GPUs you know power hundreds of thousands of tasks running concurrently these are these are very hard engineering problems like I mean I'm I'm an infra geek like I love that [ __ ] uh it's so much fun to work on it but like these are hard problems

Nebius 是一家比 coolweave 更好的企业吗？is Nebius a better business than coolweave

我其实不，不是，我……我不知道。我觉得他们两个都……都执行得非常出色。我对我们所做的一切怀有极大的敬意。我想归根结底，我最敬佩的其实是他们在财务工程方面的能力。他们很擅长这类事情。I actually don't No, like I I don't know. I I think they're both like they've executed extremely well, both of them. I have a tremendous respect for what we've done. I think at the at the end of the day, like what the the the thing that I have the most respect for is actually more in the financial engineering side. They're very good at that kind of stuff.

你为什么这么说？Why do you say that?

因为我觉得，要非常迅速地打造一家 NeoCloud，很多限制因素都在财务方面。你得很擅长先锁定一份长期客户合同，然后以此为基础筹集一大笔资金，再去买芯片、交付芯片，接着在未来几年里把债还清。像这样在财务上跳一支舞，还挺有意思的。嗯，Corv 在这方面做得非常出色。嗯，这是一场资本游戏，也是一场金融游戏。Cuz I think a lot of the constraint for building a NeoCloud very quickly is on the financial side. You need to be very good at you go lock in like a long-term customer contract, then you go raise a bunch of money against it, then you go buy the chips, then you deliver the chips, and then you pay off the debt like you know, over the next few years. Doing that sort of dance with the financials like it's kind of an interesting game. Uh, and Corv has done it exceptionally well. Uh, it's a capital game. It's a financial game.

随着前沿模型变得越来越便宜，开放模型将何去何从？What Happens to Open Models as Frontier Models Get Cheaper?

当你把一层移到它们下面时，我们谈到了 Jeb，他显然是和 modal 合作的。你知道，[清了清嗓子]我们看到开源社区取得了令人瞩目的进展，这令人振奋。是啊。When you move a layer beneath them, we spoke about Jeb who obviously work with modal. You know, we've [clears throat] seen incredible movement from the open source community, which has been exciting. Yeah.

但随后你也会看到 Haiku 和 Anthropic 最新的模型性能极强、价格也极低。如果前沿模型几乎一样便宜、效率也一样高，那么开源模型有什么优势？But then you also see Haiku and and Anthropic's newest models being incredibly performant and incredibly cheap. What's the benefit of open models if Frontier models are almost as cheap and as efficient?

我，我认为开源领域总会不断涌现出优秀的模型。我们也要记住，开源模型都在转向授权模式。也就是说，它们越来越擅长从这些模型中获取价值。我认为这意味着它们会有更多资金来训练更好的模型。我真的希望能有欧洲和美国的模型，因为我不认为现在有这么多中国模型是个好情况。呃，我是说，我当然非常尊重所有中国实验室。他们做得非常出色，但我认为，如果权力能更分散一些，对全世界都有好处。I I think open source is always going to be there's always going to be great models coming out. Let's also remember like the open source the the open source models they're all moving into licensing models. So like they're getting better at capturing the value of those models and I think that means they're going to have more funding to train better models and I really hope there's going to be European and US models because I don't think it's a good situation that we have so many Chinese models. Uh I mean there obviously I have tremendous respect for all the Chinese labs. They're extremely good at what they're doing but I think it's good for the world if there's you know more power spread out.

嗯，不过回到这个问题，我确实认为，开源会在其中发挥很大作用，因为总会有人想要微调模型、对模型有更多控制，并以某种方式调整参数，比如追求低延迟、高吞吐量之类的。Um but but anyway going back to the question I do think that open source uh there was there's always going to be people who want to fine-tune want to have more control over their models and and sort of tweak the parameters like go low latency high throughput like whatever it is and and open source is going to play a big role in that

Windows 与 Linux 对比Windows versus Linux

欧洲能否打造出具有竞争力的开放模型？Can Europe Produce a Competitive Open Model?

恕我冒昧问一句，你觉得欧洲能研发出有竞争力的开源模型吗？嗯，我是说，我、我很喜欢欧洲。我在欧洲长大，在瑞典长大。不过你知道，我确实觉得欧洲在积累大量资本这方面确实有困难。我认为这两方面都是欧洲面临的难题。而这正是中国做得非常出色的地方。他们积累了海量的人力资本；而美国显然非常擅长筹集巨额资金，以及训练规模非常大的模型。with the I I'm sorry with the greatest of respects do you think Europe will produce a competitive open source model? Yeah, I mean I I'm I I love Europe. I I grew up in Europe. I grew up in Sweden, but you know, I I do think that like Europe does struggle with, you know, accumulating large amounts of capital. I think both of those things are things that Europe struggles with and and that is something that, you know, China has done really well. They've accumulated massive amounts of human capitals uh human capital and and US obviously has very, you know, very good at like raising enormous amounts of money and like training very large models.

英伟达为何押注美国开放模型生态经典三级Why Nvidia Is Backing the US Open-Model Ecosystem

呃，我我不知道欧洲是否已经转向这两者中的任何一个。Uh, I I don't know if Europe has passed to either of those.

如果英伟达在美国掌控开源模型层，先有 Poolside，现在又有 Reflection，这重要吗？Does it matter if Nvidia owns the open-source model layer in the US with first pool side and now reflection?

我觉得英伟达专注于生态系统、构建生态系统，做得非常明智。呃，我觉得这包括扶持很多开源模型。我想他们可能看到了收购开源模型的机会，因为这些公司非常消耗资源，资本支出也非常大。我觉得英伟达收购其中一些公司，并实际上为它们提供赞助，从而打造美国本土模型，是很明智的。顺便说一句，我想收回我之前说的一点：欧洲确实拥有大量顶尖人才。我认为欧洲很不擅长的一点，是把这些人才聚集起来，让他们都在同一家公司工作。我觉得美国在这方面做得很好。I I think Nvidia is very smart to focus on the ecosystem, building up an ecosystem. Uh, and I think that includes like propping up a lot of open source models and I think they probably saw an opportunity to pick up open source models like like these these companies are very resource intensive like very capex intensive and and and I I think it's smart of Nvidia to like buy some of those and sponsor them effectively in order to create like Americanbuilt models. By the way, I want to take back like one thing I said I Europe does have an insane amount of human capital. I do think what Europe is very bad at is like aggregating them and putting all of them at the same company. That is something I think US is very good at

我觉得这会激发一种雄心勃勃、追求极大规模的心态。说回你刚才提到的那一点，比如“哦，我当时不相信自己”。恕我直言，如果你在美国，周围的环境可能会鼓励你更早创业。and I think inspiring a mindset of ambition and huge huge scale. I think to the point that you said earlier which is like oh I didn't have the belief in myself. I respectfully think if you're in the US you might have been surrounded by influences that told you to start a company earlier.

是啊，是啊。我是说，到了那种程度，另一边几乎有点太过了，不过……Yeah. Yeah. I mean it's almost like too much on the other side to that point but

哦，你四岁的时候就会被鼓励开始……离开学校、辍学。幼儿园不值得上。没错。oh when you're four you're encouraged to start leave school drop out. Kindergarten wasn't worth it. Exactly.

为什么专业化模型能发展成大生意Why Specialized Models Can Become Huge Businesses

我完全同意。我确实想聊聊我们之前谈到的模型，尤其是 Jav。我们是不是正在看到模型按功能拆分？Jav 显然很擅长某些特定任务。我觉得是这样，而且我认为这正是我之前提到的一个原因：推理市场非常庞大。市场规模只有十亿美元时，细分市场不会太多；但当市场开始达到百亿美元、千亿美元时，就会出现许多不同的细分市场。Jev 非常擅长分类以及回归这类任务，而这方面的市场也足够大。I I totally agree with you. I do want to talk about you we said about models and Jav in particular. Are we seeing like the unbundling of models on a like per function basis where Jav is obviously very good for its certain tasks. I think so and I think that's a function of what I talked about earlier where like the market for in France is so large and and that you know when a market is like you know billion dollars like you're not going to have too many subm markets but when a market is starting to get 10 billion 100 billion whatever right like you're going to have a lot of different subm markets and and Jev does classification and and things like that regression type things very very well and and there's a large enough market for that

Jev估值达1000亿美元的看涨逻辑The Bull Case for Jev at $100BN

好，欢迎！这是你作为 20VC 基金合伙人的第一天，我们正在召开投资委员会会议，而且非常荣幸有机会进行投资。okay welcome it's your first day as a partner at 20VC fund and we're in the investment committee and very kindly we have the opportunity to invest

全体 Je，我们都全力支持 Je 的新一轮。all Je, we're all in on Je's new round.

梭哈。梭哈。All in. All in.

Jav 值得1000亿美元的看涨逻辑是什么？What's What's the bull case for Jav being worth 100 billion?

我之前跟你说过，但我觉得这个品牌、这个社区，以及围绕着他们所做的一切形成的这股潮流，真的非常了不起。对我来说，在这个新时代，这是一笔非常非常巨大的资产。I I told you before, but like I I think the brand and the community and the movement around, you know, this just the sort of everything they're doing is is so incredible. And that to me is like a massive massive asset in this new age.

那是一家价值千亿美元的公司。That's a hundred billion dollar company.

我认为，有机会通过大量专用推理模型，打造一家价值千亿美元的公司。I think there is an opportunity to create a hundred billion dollar company with a lot of specialized models in inference.

不过，到了85亿，你还是会这么做的。You would have done it though at 8.5 billion.

如果是85亿美元，我当时就会做了。我觉得这件事的潜在成果相当可观。可能会退出，也可能你知道，成为一家上市公司。谁知道呢？但我确实认为这里有很大的上行空间。I would have done it at 8.5 billion. I I think there's a pretty big outcome here. Could be an exit, could be, you know, like a public company. Who knows? But but I do think there's a lot of upside here.

哥们，我真想看到他在纽约证券交易所敲钟。你明白我的意思吧？Dude, I'd love to see him ringing the bell on the New York Stock Exchange. You know what I mean?

是啊。真是个了不起的人。Yeah. Fantastic guy.

喜欢那家伙。Love that guy.

他很棒吗？Is he great?

我是说，你知道，他的个人魅力，他那种……你得围绕自己的品牌打造一种个性。你得打造这种视觉形象。显然，这不是我会选择的视觉形象，I mean, you know, his charisma, his like you have to create like a personality like around your brand. You have to create this like visual identity. It's obviously not the visual identity I would have picked,

但我觉得我……[清了清嗓子]觉得，那样我就能听到你了。不过说实话，Eric，我觉得你应该再大声一点。but I think I [clears throat] think then I hear you, but I think then you should be more loud if I'm just honest, Eric.

模态框。Modal.

不。嗯，是的，不过你……No. Well, yeah, but you

是啊，我是说，这有可能，对吧？Yeah, I mean that's possible, right?

我是说，我觉得从你的角度来看，Modal 那边并没有什么个人崇拜。Like I I don't think there's like a personality lad cult from modal from your perspective.

我觉得这批评挺公允的。我觉得自己还可以更积极地发声。我会发推，也会尝试写博客，但最近这方面做得不太好。I think that's a fair point of criticism. I think I could be out there even more. I am tweet I try to tweet. I try blogging. I've been kind of bad at that recently.

没人[ __ ]在乎写博客。No one gives a [ __ ] about blogging.

嗯，也许吧。对。也许我就是得在 Twitter 上再放飞自我一点。说到底，这基本上就是一种有趣的营销方式。就像 Modal 刚起步的时候，这对我们的增长来说是很重要的一部分，对吧？我就是一直在推特上发帖，讲我们在做什么。我觉得这真的很重要。我的意思是，每家公司都得找到适合自己的那种市场进入策略，但在早期，我们花了很多时间在 Twitter 上跟人聊天，直接联系他们，让他们试用产品，问问他们觉得怎么样。结果其中一半最后都成了天使投资人，你知道，他们现在都是 Modal 的支持者。嗯，你得发挥自己的长处。早期的时候，我发了很多屎帖。Yeah, maybe. Right. Maybe I just need to like go more unhinged on Twitter. It's like fun related marketing basically like in the early days of of modal like that was a big part of our growth right like me just like tweeting all the time about what we're building and I think that's really important if I mean every company has to find its own sort of you know go to market strategy but in the early days like we spent a lot of time just talking to people on Twitter just like hitting people up try the product what do you think half of them ended up angel investing you know they're not supporters of modal uh and and you know you have to lean into what you're good at and in the early days I I did a lot of [ __ ] posting

你知道吗，在我的粉丝数达到5万之前，每个关注我的人，我都会亲自给他们发一条感谢私信，还会点个赞。Do you know for every follower that followed me before 50,000, I would send them a personal like thank you message.

太棒了。这是你自己打出来的。That's amazing. You typed it out yourself.

每晚从凌晨1点到2点半，我都会给人发消息，比如说：“我看到你来自瑞典。我很喜欢 Grand Hotel。你来伦敦时告诉我一声。”我每晚大概会发50到100条。Every night from 1 till 2:30 a.m. I person and I'd say like, I see that you're from Sweden. I love the Grand Hotel. Let me know when you're in London. And I would send like 50 to 100 a night.

真是敬业，太了不起了。That's dedication. That's amazing.

不，不过那是客户获取飞轮。No, but it was the customer acquisition flywheel.

是啊。Yeah.

就像他们第二天去办公室时会说：“哇，你认识这个人吗？他给我发了条消息，说你应该听听他的节目。挺不错的。”这很聪明。我我很喜欢你在创作方面所做的一切，就是打造这样一个媒体品牌。真是太棒了。Like they would go into the office next day and be like, "Wow, you know this guy, he'd send me a message and like you should listen to his show. Pretty good." It's smart. I I love what you've been doing in create in terms of building up this like media brand. It's it's fantastic.

Modal 如何从产品拓展为平台How Modal Plans to Expand From a Product Into a Platform

Neil Ma有个很棒的特点，就是他会思考：我怎样才能将客户体验提升十倍？Neil Ma has a great thing which is like how can I 10x the customer experience

而且，说真的，咱们不如就来个[ __ ]，玩个游戏吧。我要怎么把当前的模态客户体验提升 10 倍？and actually like let's let's do [ __ ] it, let's play a game. How do I 10x the current modal customer experience?

我觉得我们最需要做的一件事，就是在 Modal 里推出多得多的产品。我们想打造一种基本上全面的体验：构建 AI 应用所需做的任何事情，都应该有一个 Modal 产品来支持。我们还能做的另一件事，就是多招很多 FDs 和销售代表。我得说，我们在这方面已经落后了，但我们应该多招些人，亲自联系你，说：“嘿，我看到你开始使用 Modal 了，也看到你在生物领域做事。我们能怎么帮你？这里有一些生物领域的案例，比如蛋白质折叠之类的。我们还和其他很多类似的公司合作。看起来你似乎有些怀疑。”I think the biggest thing we need is we need way more products in in modal. Like we want to create a b basically comprehensive experience of anything you need to do in order to build an AI application should be a product inside modal. The other thing we can do is hire way more FDs and way more sales reps. I I will say we've been behind on that, but we should hire like way more people that reach out to you personally and say, "Hey, I saw you get started in modal. I saw you working in the bio space. How can we help you? Here's some bio examples, you know, protein folding, whatever, right? Like we work with a bunch of other similar companies. You seem skeptical."

嗯，不，我完全没有。其实我只是在想，我挺喜欢这个产品的雄心壮志，但作为一个欧洲人，我会觉得，哇……Well, no, I don't at all. I'm actually just thinking about like I like the product ambition but I go as a European who goes wow

你是在 B2B 领域，所以我觉得这就像，你知道，我……you're in a B2B space so I think it's like you know I

但你担心自己会分身乏术。but you worry about being stretched too thin.

是的。Yeah.

就像你说的，你知道，为什么 nebas 不能像你这样高效地做事呢？因为你很擅长，而且投入了大量时间。随着你拓展到各个专业领域，每个领域里都有一些从业者已经做了很多年，这时我就会想……To your point on like you know why can't nebas do what you do so efficiently because you're so good and you spent so much time as you expand into all the specialtities there are players in each of them who've been doing that for years where I'm like

我觉得确实如此。我觉得他们很多都做得不太好。不过，我是说，我某种程度上同意你更高层次的前提：如果说有什么事情至关重要、永远不会消失，那就是优先级排序和资源分配，对吧？你不可能一边妄想把海水煮沸，一边同时做所有事情；你必须极其果断地取舍。我觉得，采取多产品战略很难把握平衡：什么时候该拓展到第二款或第三款产品，对吧？我们花了四年时间，才看到第二款产品取得成功。I think that's true. I I don't think they're very good a lot of them. But but I mean I I sort of agree with your higher level premise like if there's anything that's like super critical and never goes away it's it's prioritization and resource allocation right like you can't boil the water and try to do everything at the same time you need to be extremely ruthless and and having a multi-product strategy I think is a very hard balance like when do you branch out into second product or third product right like it took us four years to see success with a second product

它当时是沙箱。which was sandboxes

你的第二款产品要四年才能取得成功four years to see success with your second product

Modal 的沙箱业务如何实现 3 亿美元的年化营收规模How Modal’s Sandbox Business Reached a $300M Run Rate

我们推出后五年，营收就达到十亿美元。是的。所以我们在 2023 年推出了沙盒。嗯，早期并没有取得太大成功。我的意思是，也算有一些成功吧。你知道，情况不算糟糕，但它在我们的营收中占比相对微不足道，一直到 2025 年夏天。那时，模型——我想像 4.5 之类的版本——突然变得特别擅长生成代码和构建完整应用，然后业务就一下子爆发了。我的意思是，如今沙盒业务的年化营收已达 3 亿美元。we launched five years to a billion in revenue Yeah. So we we launched sandboxes in 2023. Uh didn't see a lot of success in the early days. I mean there was like some success. You know it wasn't horrible but it you know it was a relatively insignificant part of our revenue uh up until summer of 2025 when u models I think like saw the 4.5 one of those like they just got really good at generating code and building whole apps and then it's it just exploded. I mean sandboxes today is a 300 million run rate business.

呃，它大约占我们收入的三分之一，所以这一路走来可以说相当疯狂。现在我们在想，第三和第四个方向会是什么。我们刚推出了一款培训产品，我对此特别兴奋；我们正在开发批处理产品，也在做强化学习，还在做各种其他事情。所以，逐渐演变成一个平台这件事，其实早就有迹可循——如果你回头看看 Modal 最早期的演示文稿，呃，我当时也为自己整理了一些，算是理清思路吧；这一切都已经在里面了。我们当时做了这样一张市场版图，还有很多类似的东西，只不过最终做出来的产品和我们当初想的很不一样。uh it's about a third of our revenue and and so that's been a kind of a crazy journey and now we're thinking about you know what's the third and the fourth we just launched a training product I'm super excited about that working on batch products working on reinforcement learning we're working on all kinds of other stuff and so that evolution into be becoming a platform it it's actually there like if you go back to the very early decks of modal uh you know I put together some just for my own uh you know thinking it was all there it's like we we had this like market map and all these you know it ended up being very different products than we thought

为什么基础设施产品可能需要数年才能找到其杀手级应用场景Why Infrastructure Products Can Take Years to Find Their Killer Use Case

但对我来说，专注于某个类别、专注于一套解决方案，而不是只做一个单一的小组件供应商，这非常重要。But it's so important for me to create like, you know, to focus on a category and focus on a set of solutions, not just like be a single single widget vendor.

关于当今的沙箱市场，你现在有哪些认识，是你在创业并推出第一款产品时希望早些知道的？What do you know about the sandboxes market today that you wish you had known when you started and released the first product?

它确实就是那类产品之一。我觉得，做基础设施的好处之一，同时以一种奇怪的方式来说也是它的缺点之一，就是你多少得相信自己的直觉，判断哪些基础构件很重要，然后打造出很棒的基础模块。我觉得我们做的就是提供基础模块。我们会看看工程师需要什么，但不会听得太仔细，因为他们会提出各种各样的要求；我们会把这些需求提炼成一些基础模块。2021 年，我们推出了无服务器函数产品。2023 年，随着生成式 AI 推理的发展，它取得了成功。2023 年，我们又推出了沙箱产品，因为我们看到很多人在用 alams 生成代码；正如我说的，它在 2025 年取得了成功。It it it actually is like one of those products. I think one of the benefits of being in infrastructure, but also one of the drawbacks in a weird way is like you kind of just have to trust your gut on like what are like important primitives and just build like amazing building blocks. I I think we're in the space of like providing building blocks. We try to look at like what what do engineers need and and not like listen too carefully because like they'll ask for like all kinds of random stuff but kind of distill it down into like what are some of the building blocks and we put out a serverless function product in in 2021. uh it saw success in 2023 with with Gen AI inference. We put out a sandbox product in 2023 because we saw a lot of people were using alams to generate code and then it saw success in in 2025 like I said.

所以，我们在思考如何打造产品时，很多时候一直都是抱着这样的想法：先推出一些好的基础构件，然后它就爆发了。不过，回到你的问题，带来这种爆发的是强化学习、vibe coding、后台代理，未来或许还有其他东西。而这些都是我们当初没预料到的。所以我觉得，基础设施往往就是这样。我们开始打造无服务器函数产品时，也没预料到 Stable Diffusion 会出现。它恰好成了那个杀手级应用。So a lot of like how we think about building products has always been kind of like let's just put out like good building blocks and then it exploded and and but like to to answer your question it was reinforcement learning it was vibe coding uh background agents and maybe some other stuff too in the future. Uh, and those were things we actually didn't anticipate. So, so I think I think I think infrastructure is often like that. Like we didn't anticipate stable diffusion when we started building our serverless function product. It just happened to be the killer app.

你从中得出的结论是什么？唯一重要的是，你得坚持留在局中，直到时机成熟。What's your takeaway from that? The only thing is that matters is you've got to stay in the game long enough for your timing to be right.

有时候我觉得确实是这样。我的意思是，在某些方面，我们在时机上绝对非常幸运。比如，我们在 2021 年创办公司之前就推出了一些产品，然后你知道，Stable Diffusion 和 Chat GPD 在 2022 年问世，我们的时机真的很好，对吧？这一下创造了巨大的需求，而我们的定位也非常有利。但其中一部分也和基础设施有关。还是那句话，我觉得关键在于打造一些你预见到未来会派上用场的产品，而且这些产品也是根据你自己的经验、你一直希望能看到的东西来做的。嗯，我觉得你得在这方面相信自己的直觉。Sometimes I think that's right. I mean, we we definitely been extremely lucky in certain ways with timing. like we put out products like right before we started the company 2021 and then you know stable diffusion and chat GPD came out 2022 we had really good timing with that right it just created so much demand and we're very well positioned but some of it is also like with infrastructure like again like I think it's about like building products that you know you anticipate will be useful in the future and and from your own experience are things that you always wanted to see um I I think you have to kind of trust your gut in that

为什么 Modal 在开放模型推理领域投入不足Why Modal Underinvested in Open-Model Inference

伙计，你刚才谈到了资源配置，并且认为这非常非常重要。考虑到产品线如此广泛，你把资源分配到了哪些地方？事后回想，有哪些地方是你希望当初没有投入资源的？你如何反思这件事？dude you said there about you resource allocation and that being very very important important as you think about this breadth of products where did you allocate resources where with the benefit of hindsight you wish you hadn't and how do you reflect on that

我觉得我们本应该像之前那样，给大语言模型推理投入更多资源。我觉得有一段时间我们多少有点置身事外，没有意识到开源推理会发展得这么大。我们还以为这会是一场逐底竞争，变成一个纯粹的商品化领域。后来 DeepSeek 出来了，我们就想：“[ __ ]，我们得赶紧行动。”于是我们立刻组建了一支团队。你知道，我们一开始只有一两个人在做这件事，12 个月后就有 30 个人了。现在我们已经是前三大服务提供商之一。I think we should have allocated more resources towards LM inference like earlier I think we're a little bit on on the the sidelines for a while we didn't realize how big open source inference would be um and we thought it would be kind of a race to the bottom just a commodity space and then deep sea came out we're like [ __ ] like we got to move very fast and so we staffed up a team immediately you know went from like you know one or two people working on this to like 30 people 12 months later uh and and now we're one of the top three providers.

开放模型推理是否已经见顶？Has Open-Model Inference Already Peaked?

我的好朋友杰森·拉宁（Jason Lanin）每周四都会和我一起做节目。他总是说，我们现在实际上已经达到了开源大语言模型推理使用量的峰值。我们将看到前沿模型提供商直截了当地推出如今这种极其便宜的产品。美国企业不想使用中国模型，这种情况会持续下去。因此，实际上，凭借这两个核心的既有优势，前沿模型将会开展研究，我们也将看到开源大语言模型推理模式的使用量下降并趋于平稳。Jason Lanin, dear friend of mine who I do a show with every Thursday, he always says that now we've reached peak actually opensource LLM inference usage. We're going to see frontier providers bluntly provide incredibly cheap products that they are now. US enterprises don't want to use Chinese models. That will continue. And so actually with those two core prevailing wins, Frontier will actually research and we will see a reduction plateauing of the OS LLM inference model.

我觉得这有点像是把蛋糕大小看成固定不变的思维方式。就像，我觉得，你知道，恕我直言，我确实认为这两个领域在未来 12 个月及之后都会增长 5 倍、10 倍、20 倍。所以，很难争论哪个会比另一个更大，但我认为未来几年这两个领域都会增长好几个数量级。未来 12 个月增长 5 倍、10 倍、20 倍。I think that's a little bit of a fixed pie size mentality. Like I I I think you know with with all due respect I do think both spaces will grow 5x 10x 20x over the next 12 months and and beyond like and so like it's hard to argue like you know which one's going to be bigger than the other but I think both will grow like in you know orders of magnitude over the next few years. 5x 10x 20x over the next 12 months.

是的，当然。Yeah, for sure.

Modal营收年化运行率突破10亿美元Modal Hits a $1BN Revenue Run Rate

你的营收刚刚突破了十亿美元。是啊，干得漂亮。You just hit a billion in revenue. Yeah. Well done.

是的。Yeah.

那感觉是不是很酷？Does that feel pretty cool?

感觉还挺酷的。是啊。我是说，我我，这个，你知道，就像我我也不知道。就像我是个瑞典人，你知道，在一个随便什么地方长大的瑞典人。对我来说，这些数字简直离谱，不过，是啊，感觉真棒。It feels pretty cool. Yeah. I mean, I I it's, you know, like I I don't know. Like I'm this like, you know, Swedish guy that, you know, grew up in a random I I for me it's like these numbers are absurd, but like Yeah. Like it feels great.

这钱也太多了。It's so much money.

Eric，你真是……我没想到你会这么讨人喜欢、这么酷。Eric, you're so I wasn't expecting you to be so like likable and cool.

我不知道。就像有一大串零似的。I don't know. Like it's like a lot of zeros.

Modal 在 12 个月内能发展到多大？How Big Can Modal Be in 12 Months?

比如说，十亿有多少个零？它……Like how many zeros are in a billion? It

这、这可是一大笔钱。嗯，你看着这个时，你的财富管理顾问会告诉你：12个月后你会是什么情况？it's it's a lot. Um your wealth manager will tell you when you look at that. Where will you be in 12 months?

我不知道。我能说的是，我们一直在增长。过去12个月里，我们增长了50倍。所以你可以据此推算。我的意思是，我不知道，到了某个阶段，市场会变得非常大，增长也会开始稍微放缓。但嗯，以我们现在的增长速度来看，增长并没有放缓——我们每个月都在增长30%到40%。40亿。I don't know. What I can say is we've been growing. We grew 50x in the last 12 months. So you can extrapolate that. I mean I don't know like at some point we start you know like markets just get very big and they start to slow down a little bit. But um I I with with the growth rate right now like the growth rates are not slowing down like we're growing 30 40% every month. 4 billion.

我的意思是，我确实觉得我们应该……我、我希望我们能远远超越那个程度。I mean, I definitely think we should I I hope to be way beyond that.

恕我直言，150亿美元听起来还是相当便宜的价格。比如说，如果我是大使，那这就是我现在估算的范围。假如你认为最终会达到40亿美元，比如说，我不知道，把12亿美元计入净利润。对。那他们实际上付出的价格，也就相当于明年年底净利润的14倍？营收的3倍。With the greatest of respects, 15 billion then feels like quite a cheap price. Like if I'm an ambassador, so this is now my ballpark. Like if you if you think you were going to be at 4 billion, say dropping, I don't know, uh a billion two to the bottom line. Yeah. Then they actually only paid what 14x end of year next year bottom line. 3x top line.

是啊，是啊，有点便宜。Yeah. Yeah, it's kind of cheap.

那感觉挺廉价的。That feels pretty cheap.

我觉得这很便宜。我的意思是，如果我不认为我们能够发展壮大，成为一家跨世代的公司，我就不会做这件事。我认为这里有巨大的增长空间。这是有史以来最大的市场机遇之一。我认为，对计算资源和 AI 应用的需求将会极其庞大，而它们都需要一个运行的平台。我希望其中很多都会在 Modal 上运行。I think it's cheap. I mean, like, I wouldn't do this if I didn't think we could grow and become like a generational company. I think there's so much upside. I think this is one of the largest markets opportunities that's ever existed. I I think that the demand for compute, the demand for AI applications, it's just it's going to be enormous and they're all going to need a place to run and I hope a lot of them are going to run a modal.

Modal 下一阶段的重大营收机遇Modal’s Next Big Revenue Opportunities

你们现在还没有、或者规模很小，但你认为三年或五年后会占据非常重要地位的收入来源是什么？What revenue line do you not have today or is tiny that you think will be very significant in three years time, five years time?

这是个好问题。我觉得训练是我们刚刚推出的一项业务。我觉得它的规模可能会非常大。我希望它能在未来 6 到 12 个月内达到 1 亿的年化收入。嗯，训练后处理方面，我们也在做批处理作业。嗯，我还对很多传统的数据仓库、数据库、工作流编排、特征存储、向量数据库之类的东西感到非常兴奋。这里面有太多环节了，而且它们都能很好地衔接起来，这正是让我特别兴奋的地方。That is a good question. I think training is is something we just launched. I think that could be very large. I I hope that could get to 100 million run rate in the next 6 to 12 months. Um post training similarly working on batch jobs. Um I'm very excited also about a lot of like sort of traditional like data warehousing stuff, databases, um workflow orchestration, uh feature stores like vector database. I there's just so many parts of this and they all kind of fit together very nicely and that that to me is like what I'm so excited about.

就像一旦你开始在这个领域里做东西，就会发现有很多很自然的相邻方向。比如说，我的问题就是，我很容易对各种事情兴奋起来，所以我完全不缺点子。比如在 Modal，我们有很多想做的事情。我很想涉足 CI，也就是持续集成，这是个非常有意思的领域；还有智能体运行框架；也许我们应该训练模型；你知道，就是有五千个方向可以探索。而我的注意力缺陷多动症脑子就想往所有这些方向冲。显然，你必须非常果断地确定优先级，在合适的时候只做一两件事。但是，但是，但是，我们可以走的方向实在太多了。It's like once you start building in this space there's so many natural adjacencies like this is like a problem with me is like I get excited about so I have like no lack of ideas like at modal like we have so many ideas of things we want to go CI would love to get into continuous integration that's like a very interesting space agent harnesses maybe we should train models maybe you know there's just 5,000 directions you know and that's like my add brain like wants to run in all of those directions you have to be obviously ruthless with prioritization and only take on like one or two things at at the right time but But but but there's so many different directions we can go.

真令人惊讶，你妻子做决定时会打电话问你。It's amazing that your wife calls you for decisions.

她一定会得到一个非常不连贯的回答。She must get a very incoherent answer.

我知道。我知道。I know. I know.

这是吗？我只是想要一些窗帘。Is this I just wanted some curtains.

对。你知道，窗帘嘛，我就喜欢你从里面挑一个。我们看过《辛普森一家》，里面雷尼尔·沃尔夫卡斯尔当上了总统，他们就问他：“你想选哪个？”你知道，选一个到七。他说：“我生来是当领导的，不是读书的。”然后选了四号。Yeah. You know, with the curtains, I just like you pick one of them. We've seen Simpsons and like Rain Wolf Castle becomes the president and they're like, [clears throat] "Which one do you want to pick?" You know, one to seven. He's like, "I was born to lead, not to read." And number four.

后训练将变得多么重要？How Important Will Post-Training Become?

是的，我我我完全，呃，理解这一点。我能问一下吗？我觉得我们看到重点上出现了明显转变，资源分配也从预训练转向了后训练。嗯，你怎么看？你觉得这会成为新常态吗？Yeah. I I I totally uh get that. Can I ask we've seen this real shift, I think, in in emphasis, but also in resource allocation from pre-training to post-training. Um, how do you feel about that? And do you think that is the new normal?

我我我不知道。我我觉得后训练之所以有效，是因为人们在现实生活中会做很多任务，而这些任务有相当有限的那种，呃，反馈机制。I I I don't know. I I think post-training works because there's a lot of tasks that people do in real life that have fairly finite sort of uh feedback mechanisms.

所以，编程就是一个很好的例子，对吧？你可以通过强化学习把编程做得相当好，因为你知道，可以在沙盒里运行代码，很多实验室都在运行 modal 沙盒，目的正是如此。再看网络安全，这是另一个领域。数学显然也是，借助 Lean，我的意思是，我们最近看到了一些非常出色的成果。我觉得那些 OpenAI 的证明简直不可思议。法律或许在某种程度上也可以，你知道，可以做一些评估。所以我认为，现在大家对后训练如此关注，确实很有道理，因为有很多任务传统上只有人类能完成，但实际上这些任务已在智能体和 LLM 的能力范围之内。不过，我不知道这种做法能否拓展到这些领域之外。我不知道，外面有很多任务的反馈周期长得多，我不确定后训练目前是否已经能够胜任。So, coding is like a great example, right? like you can do coding with reinforcement learning pretty well uh because you know you can have you can run code in sandboxes and a lot of labs are running uh modal sandboxes for that exact purpose. you start to look at cyber security is another area math obviously with lean I mean we've seen some fantastic product I think it's kind of incredible all these like open eye uh proofs the other day so law maybe to some extent you can you know do like eval so I I think I think post training right now like there's like such an incredible focus on it because you you you have all these tasks that traditionally only humans can do but actually well within reach for for agents and and for LMS um but but but like I I don't know if it extends beyond that like I don't know like there's a lot of tasks out there that like have way longer feedback loops that I don't know if like post training quite yet are is within reach.

很多人会问我，长远来看，软件工程师会怎么样。我想，你知道，我们可能会把智能体能在 24 小时、一周之类的时间内完成的所有事情都自动化。但我总觉得，工程师做的事情时间跨度更长，反馈循环也更长。所以我感觉，我们在强化学习方面可能会开始遇到一些局限。不过我这么多年来一直都判断错了。也许我还是会判断错，它会继续发展下去，最终我们就能对人类需要 6 个月才能完成的事情进行强化学习。我也不知道。A lot of people ask me like what's going to happen with software engineers in the long term. And I think you know we're probably going to automate everything that that an agent can do within 24 hours or or a week or something like that. But I kind of feel like you know engineers like they they work on a longer time scale and they have feedback loops that are longer. So I I I have a feeling like reinforcement learning we're going to start to run into some limitations around that. But I've been wrong for so long. So maybe I'll be wrong and just keeps going and eventually we can re do reinforcement learning on things that take 6 months for a human. I don't know

为什么 AI 智能体不会取代软件工程师Why AI Agents Won’t Kill Software Engineers

三年后，工程师的一天会是什么样？what does the day look like in 3 years for an engineer.

我是说，我对软件工程极其看好。I mean I I'm extremely bullish on software engineering.

我写代码已经 30 年了，见证了很多变化，比如编程语言、云计算，还有各种各样的框架。每次我们让专业程序员的效率更高，软件需求就会随之增加。世界上有很多地方都迫切需要软件，所以我非常、非常看好软件，也看好软件工程的需求。我认为外界最大的误解之一，就是以为开发者的工作是把英语翻译成代码。这从来都不是软件工程师的工作。首先，他们要理解需求，成为你所服务的人——归根结底，你是在为人们构建软件——与软件之间的接口，并试着弄清楚这在流程和工作流方面究竟意味着什么。而这一切也在不断向技术栈上层发展。你知道，早在 20 世纪 60 年代，我们还在写汇编语言、用穿孔卡片，后来转向了 COBOL，再后来是 C++，然后是 Python，而现在我们用的是智能体。I've been coding for 30 years and I've seen so many different changes with like programming languages and the cloud and you know so many different frameworks and it's you know every single time we make pro programmers more efficient it just increases demand for software. there's so many parts of the world that desperately need software and so I'm I'm very very bullish on software uh and and the need for soft software engineering and I think one of the biggest misconceptions from the outside is that developer it's about like translating from English to code like that has never been in you know the job of software engineers it's like to understand the requirements in the first place and be kind of an interface between the humans you're building for humans at the end of the day and like trying to figure out like what does that even mean in terms of processes and workflows and and and that continuously moves up in the stack you know back In the 60s, we used to write assembly and punch cards and then we moved to cobalt and then to C++ and then to Python and and now we're using agents.

而且这只是其中一件事，嗯，绝对是我过去30年里见过的最重大的事情。不过我确实认为，纵观软件和计算机的发展史，我们有很多很多类似的例子和相似之处。呃，在我看来，这让我觉得软件工程师在未来10到20年里应该都没问题。And that's just like one and and like it's definitely like the biggest thing that I've seen in the last 30 years. But I do think we have many many analoges and many parallels throughout the the history of of software and computers. Uh to me that makes me feel like you know software engineers are going to be fine for the next 10 20 years.

Modal 每月在编程智能体上花费约 50 万美元Modal Spends ~$500K Per Month on Coding Agents

你们在 Modal 每月在编码代理上花多少钱？How much money do you spend on coding agents a month at Modal?

我想大概有五十万左右吧。I think a half a million or something like that.

你们有多少名工程师？150名。How many engineers you have? 150.

伙计，不过这也太、太令人担忧了。Dude, that's so that's so worryingly though.

你应该想要更多地把 token 用满。You want to should be token maxing more.

它应该是那个的 10 倍。It should be 10x that.

嗯，也许吧。我不知道。Yeah, maybe. I don't know.

Brandon说，McCor，呃，他们在推理上的支出是人类员工薪酬的3倍。Brandon said McCor um that they spend 3x their human salaries on inference.

是啊，是啊，是啊。我们还没完全到那一步。呃，不过我得说，我们的软件工程师都特别相信智能体这套东西，我自己也一样。我的意思是，我几乎一直都在用智能体写代码。但我觉得，如果你在关注 Anthropic 的 IPO，别担心，我不是要搞彭博那一套，把你拉过来问“你怎么看 Anthropic 的 IPO？”我最讨厌这种了。对，太棒了。Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We're not quite there yet. Uh but I will say like our software engineers are extremely agent pills, including myself. I mean I I write code with agents like all the time. But I think like the big question if you're looking at like an anthropic IPO and don't worry I'm not doing a Bloomberg and like pulling you in to be like what do you think of the anthropic IPO? I hate those. Yeah, it's great.

随着模型越来越便宜，编码智能体的支出还会继续增长吗？Will Coding-Agent Spend Keep Growing as Models Get Cheaper?

AI领域里没人会不喜欢吧。It's no one in AI is like not a fan.

是的。Yeah.

大家都准备好了。嗯，不过我确实觉得，最大的宝藏可以这么说，是 Claude Code。它的营收有 600 亿美元，在很大程度上决定了 2 万亿美元的估值。嗯，你看马克·贝尼奥夫说，他们现在在 Claude Code 上的花费相当于工程师薪酬的 5%，也就是 3 亿美元。如果随着效率提升等等，这笔开支大幅下降，那就是个挑战。还是说，随着它越来越多地渗透到工程师的工作流程中，这笔开支会增加？Everyone is go. Um but I do think a big uh the motherload so to speak is claw code. It's $60 billion of revenue. it largely kind of um dictates the $2 trillion price. Um and you look at Mark Ben off who says that they spend 5% of engineers salaries 300 million on claw code today. Now if that comes way down as efficiencies improve you name it. That's a challenge. Or will that go up as it just eats more and more of engineers workflows?

是啊，它只会消耗更多。我是说，我们已经见过太多次了：你让某样东西效率更高、功能更强大，就会解锁大概五种新的用例，最终需求只会越来越高。这就是过去 50 年里计算机和软件发展的历史。不过，要不是我这么乐观，我也不会在这里。这就是我创业的原因；我就是全世界最乐观的软件和计算机爱好者，我真的太喜欢这玩意儿了 [ __ ]，而且我觉得它还会继续发展壮大。Yeah, it's just going to eat more. I mean like again like we've seen this so many times like you make something more efficient, you make something more powerful, it just unlocks like five new use cases and the demand just goes up in the end. Like that's that's just the history of like the last 50 years of computers and software. But like I wouldn't be here if I wasn't such an optimist. That's why I started a company and like I'm just like the biggest like optimist that there is in the world about software and computers and like I just love this [ __ ] and I think it's just going to keep growing.

为什么如今人工智能训练数据市场如此有利可图Why AI Training Data Is Such a Lucrative Market Today

数据市场是一个很有意思的领域。许多参与者都迅速实现了规模化。The data market is an interesting one. We have so many players that have scaled so fast.

是啊，真令人难以置信。Yeah, it's incredible.

如果我只有20岁，而且只想赚很多钱，我就会出去创办一家环境领域的公司，然后把数据卖给 Frontier Labs。这个领域有太多赚钱的机会了，简直令人难以置信。If I was 20 and I just wanted to make a lot of money, I would go out and start an environment company and just sell data to Frontier Labs. There is so much money to be made in that space. It's kind of incredible.

让我们再深入一层。接下来你会怎么做？你专注于某个特定市场。Let's go a layer deeper. What would you do next? You specialize on a specific market.

我的意思是，现在需求最大的还是编程领域。比如，如果你能把编程环境卖给那些实验室，就能赚很多钱。这个领域的空间很大。I mean, the coding space is where you see the most demand right now. Like if you can sell like code environments to to the labs, like you can make a lot of money. Like there's a big space in that

还在。还在。是啊。是啊。我经常见到初创公司。我我天使投资了好几家。我的意思是，它们都是很了不起的企业。我我觉得，我想给的一条建议是：你们现在能赚很多钱，但这是一家风投基金吗？你们想踏上风投这台跑步机吗？我不确定。我觉得这些公司现在会赚很多钱。我不知道它们长期来看能不能赚很多钱，但谁在乎呢？你知道，拿钱就是了。这可是笔好钱。它它现在就是一家很棒的企业，这才是最重要的。我觉得有有有数据市场，也有数据和服务。你看看那些领先的供应商，它们一开始是数据采集方，后来就只是把数据卖给你，基本上也就这样了。still. still. Yeah. Yeah. I meet startups all the time. I I angel invested in a bunch of them. I mean, they're incredible businesses. I I don't think what I will say like my one piece of advice is like you make a lot of money today, but like is this a venture fund? Like do you want to get on the venture treadmill? I'm not sure. Like I think these are companies that going to make a lot of money today. I don't know if they're going to make a lot of money in the very long run, but like who cares? Like you know, take the money. It's like great money. Like it it's a fantastic business today and that's all that matters. I think there's there's there's data marketplaces and then there's data and services. And when you look at the leading providers, they started as the data acquirers and then just sell you the data and that's kind of it.

我认为他们现在确实已经覆盖了完整生命周期，从部署、实施、评估到监控，并具备真正的企业级全程指导能力，类似于 FDS；他们会真正成为合作伙伴，确保全面落地。是的，And I think they've really gone full life cycle now to deployment, implementation, evaluation, monitoring with a real enterprise handholding ability similar to the FDS where they will really be that partner to ensure full implementation. Yeah,

这就是提高利润率，并从长远来看维持某种业务的方式。that's how you expand margin and and have some form of business in the long term

当然。是的。for sure. Yeah.

每家公司都应该拥有自己的智能吗？Should Every Company Own Its Own Intelligence?

不过我认为，从长远来看这会是一门很难做的生意；但就目前而言，出售这些数据集能带来非常可观的现金流。And I think it's going to be a tough business in the very long run, but like today you can have extremely good cash flow selling these data sets.

我想问一下，当我们考虑这种实现方式时，你刚才说你们和合作伙伴的合作非常紧密，Lynn 也谈到了 Fireworks 所说的拥有自己的智能能力的重要性。你能详细说说这具体是什么样的吗？对企业来说，采用这种方式构建专用模型到底有没有用，目前还没有定论。Harvey 说这非常棒、效果惊人；而 Lora 则认为这简直荒谬，因为底层模型迭代得太快了，这是一种错误的策略。是的，有些事情上，拥有自己的智能能力是有好处的；但另一些事情就不是这样。我不觉得每个人都必须拥有自己的智能能力。比如，我们有很多客户会在 Model 2 上运行专有模型，而他们的客户也会使用专有模型。我不认为拥有自己的智能能力对所有人都有意义。Can I when we think about that kind of implementation working with partners so closely you said and Lynn has said too from fireworks about the importance of owning your own intelligence. Can you unpack how this looks because specialized models for companies in this way kind of jury is still out. We have Harvey who says that it's fantastic and it's been amazing and then you have Lora who say ridiculous the underlying models move so fast it's the wrong strategy. Yeah, for some stuff it's good to own your own intelligence for other stuff is not like I don't think it matters like we have a lot of customers that run proprietary models on on model too like and and their customers you know they use a proprietary model like I don't I don't think it makes sense for everyone to own their own intelligence.

为什么对你来说，这么做而不是不这么做是有意义的？我觉得，对于某些用例，你可以拿一个开源模型来微调，并获得非常好的效果。好处在于，你知道这个微调后的模型是基于什么的。它不会变——他们也不会把模型从你手里收回去。拥有这种价值、这种稳定性，以及持续调整模型的能力，同时底层模型又不会变化，这挺好的；有些情况下，前沿实验室就改动过底层模型。Why does it make sense for you to versus not? I I think for certain use cases, you can take an open source model and you can fine-tune it and you can get really good performance. And the nice thing is you know what the fine-tuned model is based on. It's not going to change like they're not going to take away the model from you. It's nice to have that value like that consistency and and the ability to like continuously like tweak it without without you know the underlying model changing which has happened in some cases with the Frontier Labs.

我觉得这挺好的，你知道，我支持这个想法，但我觉得对人们来说，还有很多其他事情也很重要。拥有自己的智能只是很多事情中的一件。我觉得延迟很重要，成本、性能也很重要；我觉得可改造性也很重要，还有拥有一个能提供许多相关服务的平台，这些也都很重要。拥有自己的智能嘛，是的，我支持，但你知道，还有很多其他事情。I that's like you know that's nice like you know I support that but like I you know I think there's many other things that matter to to people. you know owning your intelligence is like just one thing out of many like I think latency matters I think cost matter performance I think you know hackability I think you know being you know having a platform of a lot of adjacent services like these things matter too owning your own intelligence like yeah I'm supportive but you know there's many other things

这不有点和你的生意相悖吗？isn't that kind of going against your business

不，我不这么认为。我、我、我们，这个……no I don't think so I I we the

我喜欢这份坦诚，但哥们儿，说“是”对你更有利啊。每家公司都会需要它，而我们就是能帮上忙的合作伙伴。我都算是把球给你架好了，结果你……[ __ ]I love the honesty but like dude it would be in your favor to say yes every company's going to need it and we're the partner to help you. I kind of [ __ ] teed you up there and you

嗯，我的意思是，也不完全是。我是说，如果你想想用 Jav 实现类型安全，对吧？就像，你知道，它是一个高度专有的模型。比如，我希望人们使用 Jav。我的意思是，它运行在 Modal 上，所以我们有很多这样的客户，他们自己的模型是专有的，托管在 Modal 上并为客户提供服务，我也非常非常支持这一点。Well, I mean, not not really. I mean, if you think about type safe with Jav, right? Like, you know, it's a highly proprietary model. Like, I want people to use Jav. I mean, it runs on modal like like so we have many customers like that themselves are proprietary model like that are hosting on model that are serving their customers and I'm very very in favor of that too.

我觉得模型的妙处始终在于，它是一个通用平台，支持很多不同的东西。对我来说，这就是它的美妙之处：如果你想用开源模型，那太好了，我们会帮助你。很多客户都基于开源模型构建了出色的 AI 应用，对模型进行微调、开展强化学习，还有一大堆相关的沙盒用例或训练等等。但也有很多公司已经建立起非常成功的业务，比如 Suno、Runway 这类公司、Safe 以及许多其他公司，它们在 Modal 上运行自己的专有模型，而它们的客户并不在意这一点。我觉得这让我们处于一个非常有利的位置。I think the beauty of model is always that there's like a general purpose platform and we support so many different things that that to me is like you know the beauty is like you know we can if you want to use open source models like that's great like we'll help you and there's many customers that build incredible AI applications on top of open source models fine-tuning them reinforcement learning have a bunch of you know adjacent sandbox use cases or training whatever but there's a lot of companies that have built highly successful businesses you know suno runway types safe and many others like running their own proprietary model on modal like and and their customers don't care and and that that that I think is like you know puts us in a really good spot.

模型路由是一门站得住脚的生意吗？Is Model Routing a Defensible Business?

在我快速问答之前，我还想再问两个问题。I want to ask two more questions before I do a quick fire.

好的。Okay.

正如亲爱的美国人所说，模型路由。Model routing as the dear Americans say.

（嗤笑）这算是一门有护城河的生意吗？Is [snorts] that a defensible business?

在英国你们会怎么说？“Rooting”（支持）？What are you saying in the UK? Rooting.

生根。Rooting.

生根。Rooting.

我很喜欢那个。I love that.

嗯，我是说，我们才是原版语言，美国只是把我们的语言拿过去糟蹋了一番。不过，是的。呃，我想问你的是，这是不是价值链中一个有竞争壁垒的环节，还是说它只是个商品化产品，谁都能自己做出来？Well, I mean we are actually the original language America just took ours and bastardized it. But yes. Um uh my question to you is that a defensible segment of this value chain or is that a commoditized product that everyone just builds themselves?

我认为在模型路由领域可以打造一家成功的企业。呃，我觉得今天你完全可以把它做成一款独立产品。我在想，从长远来看，它是否必须成为一个更全面的平台的一部分。归根结底，我觉得这些公司想要的是评测，想要的是微调的方法；他们还想要对性能有更多控制，比如延迟、吞吐量之类的各种指标。我觉得这算是那种在当下挺说得通的事情。这些都是非常不错的生意。我个人投资了 OpenRouter，他们的结果很不错。呃，实际上我觉得如果他们独立发展，表现还能更好。不过，从非常长远的角度来看，我觉得它像是那种……当然，这只是我对 AI 领域所有事情的看法。I think it's possible to build a successful business in model rooting. Uh I think you can do that today as a standalone product. I wonder if long-term it has to be part of a more comprehensive platform. At the end of the day, I think what what these companies want, they want eval, they want, you know, ways to fine-tune. they want, you know, more control over uh performance like latency, throughput, like all these things. And I I I think it's like one of those things that kind of makes sense today. Like these are very good businesses. I invested in open router personally. Uh and they had a great outcome. Uh I actually think they could have done even better on a standalone basis. Um but but I think in the very long term it feels like one of those categories like you know and but that's my view on everything in AI.

它确实应该成为一套更庞大、更全面的工具体系的一部分，你知道。It should really be a part of you know larger more comprehensive set of tools.

埃里克为何会告诉 OpenRouter 不要出售了Why Erik Would Have Told OpenRouter Not to Sell

恭喜，你现在是 OpenRouter 的董事会成员，收购要约来了。请论证他们为什么会这么做。对，对。请论证一下。Congratulations, you're on the open router board and the acquisition offer comes in. Please make the case for why they would have done that. Yeah. Yeah. Please make the case.

我觉得，我觉得 Open Router 的增长率和收入都……而且说实话，他们的品牌真的很强。我是说，竞争对手很多，大概还有 500 家，但这个领域增长得太快了，收入也非常可观。呃，我会建议他们继续做下去。I think I think Open Router like the growth rate and the revenue like this is and and the brand frankly like they have a really strong brand. I mean there's a lot of like there's 500 other competitors but but but but the space is growing so fast and there's so much revenue. Uh I I would have told them to keep going.

最后一个问题。我觉得一个很能说明问题的问题是：你相信什么，而这种信念并不利于你的生意？比如，我觉得如今的种子轮投资有点儿过时了，甚至[ __ ]。还有那种“2 on 10，然后我们用18个月慢慢搭建”的想法。Final one. I think a really telling question is what do you believe that does not go in the favor of your business? And so for example, I think that seed investing today is kind of dead and [ __ ] This idea of like two on 10 and we'll slowly build for 18 months.

嗯，这有点糟。比如说，如果你想赚钱，那确实不太好，对吧？但如果你想和工程师——或者说，和创始人建立关系，那就很棒了。Well, it's kind of bad. Like it's kind of bad if you want to make money, right? But it's great if you want to develop a relationship with engineers or I mean with founders.

当然。但那违背了我的行事方式。我……我是……Sure. But that goes against what I do. I I'm

你反对这段关系，和……You're against the relationship with with

不，我是说，我觉得种子轮投资那套——以 1000 万估值融 200 万，然后埋头开发 18 个月——已经行不通了。No, I'm saying like I think the death of seed investing, the two on 10 and build for 18 months is dead.

是的。不，我明白你的意思。Yeah. No, I understand what you're saying.

那么，你的会是什么？So, what would yours be?

为什么埃里克预计 AI 市场将回调 20%–30%Why Erik Expects a 20–30% AI Market Pullback

我我不知道。我我的意思是，我我觉得我有一个想法：显然，某个时候，AI 这东西发展得太快了。我们现在在这儿，接下来会发展到那儿，然后股市就会回调，你知道，跌个 20%、30%。大家都会吓坏，很多人会说世界末日要来了。我几乎可以肯定这种事会发生，但我还是非常看好，因为之后我们还会继续向前发展。你知道，所以所以这算是我想到的一件事：肯定会有回调，我能接受。呃，因为我觉得长期机会大得他妈的惊人，实在太大了。I I don't know. I I mean I I think one one thought I have is like obviously at some point this AI stuff is growing so fast and we're here and we're going to go to here and then there's going to be pullback, you know, 20% 30% in the stock market. Everyone's going to freak out and like people are going to say it's the end of the world. I'm almost certain it's going to happen, but like I'm so bullish because then we're going to keep going and like, you know, like so so that that would be like one thing that I'm like, you know, there's going to be a pullback. I'm okay with that. Uh cuz I think the long-term opportunity is so [ __ ] big. It's like so large.

为什么员工二级股份交易在 AI 人才争夺战中至关重要Why Employee Secondaries Matter in the AI Talent War

完全同意。你们会接受二级市场交易吗？Totally agree. Do you take secondaries?

非常少。Very little.

为什么？Why?

我是说，我个人其实不需要很多钱。我挺知足的，生活也很满意，钱也够用。所以就我个人而言，我其实支持让员工出售股份。我觉得，作为创始人，让股权尽可能值钱其实相当重要。实现这一点、并向未来的候选人证明这不是纸面上的财富，而是真金白银的一种方式，就是先有员工二级交易的先例。这样你就可以说，比如上一轮我们允许员工出售这么多股份，或者最多可以出售 10%。我觉得必须设置一些限制。你不希望员工卖掉太多股份。你希望他们仍然能切身参与其中，仍然有很强的动力去推动公司取得成功。I I mean, I personally don't need a lot of money. I you know I I'm pretty happy with life and I have enough. Uh so personally I I actually support it for my employees though. I think um it's it's quite important actually as a founder to uh to that um you make the equity worth as much as possible. And one of the way to do that and to tell future candidates that no this isn't just paper money this is real money is to have a president of of doing employee secondaries. then you can point to, you know, last round we let employees sell this much or whatever and, you know, up to 10%. Like I I think you have to have guardrails. Like you don't want employees to sell too much. Uh you want them to still be very, you know, have a lot of skin in the game and and be very incentivized to to make the company successful.

但我觉得这是一种把股权转化成流动性很强的硬通货的方式。But I think it's a it's a way to like, you know, like create a very liquid hard currency out of the equity.

我完全同意。I totally agree.

为什么顶尖 AI 实验室愿意为杰出的应届毕业生开出 2000 万美元以上的薪酬Why Top AI Labs Are Paying Exceptional New Grads $20M+

而且，当你想到人才市场的竞争会更加激烈时，这非常……And as you think about a talent marketplace more competitive, it's very

竞争实在太激烈了。是啊。是不是太疯狂了？it's extremely competitive out there. Yeah. Is it nuts?

太疯狂了，太疯狂了。我是说，你知道，我们看到那些新毕业生去一些实验室时拿到的 offer，动辄两千多万美元之类的。我是说，这些人都非常出色，出类拔萃。It's nuts. It's nuts. I mean, you know, it like the offers we see for we've lost new grats going to, you know, some of the labs for like ins like talking, you know, 20 plus million. I mean, these are exceptional people. Exceptional.

什么样的应届毕业生才算出类拔萃？[叹气]What makes an exceptional exceptional new grad? [sighs]

你知道，就是那种特别特别[ __ ]聪明的人，你懂吧？这种人嘛，我一看到就知道。他们就是特别有冲劲、勤奋，而且对技术了如指掌。You know, like just just [ __ ] sharp people, you know? These are like I I know it when I see it. like they're just, you know, they're just extremely hungry, hardworking, know everything about technology.

我是说，他们会去一些大型实验室。I mean, they go to some of the big labs.

就这样吗？他们到户外去了。Is that it? They go to open air.

是啊，大型实验室。是啊，他们给的钱很多。Yeah, big labs. Yeah, they pay a lot.

但这就是全部了吗？天赋是从这里来的吗？But is that it? Is that where the talent comes?

还有几个别的，不过不过我的意思是，主要是那些人以花很多钱而闻名。There's like a few other ones, but but I mean, mainly those people are are known for paying very a lot of money

而且你不用付那么多钱。and you won't pay that much.

我们付得很多。我们可以采取非常激进的策略。我们希望在市场上按第95百分位的水平付薪，而且我知道有几家公司可能会多付一点。我觉得我们的股权上行空间大得多。回到我之前说的二级交易，我认为这也是为什么要让股权这种“货币”具有真正、切实的价值，这一点很重要，这样我们的 offer 才会显得非常非常有竞争力。再加上我们的上行空间很大。我的意思是，你说得对，我们的股票看起来很便宜。我也觉得我们的股票有很大的上涨空间。We pay a lot. We can go very aggressive. We want to be out there paying 95 fifth percentile for in the market and and there's like a few companies that I know like they're probably going to pay a little bit more. I think we have way more upside in the equity. And going back to what I said about secondaries, I think it's important that for for that reason also like to create like a real tangible value in the currency in the equity that makes us, you know, our offers seem very very strong. Plus the fact that we have a lot of upside. I mean you you you said it right like our stock seems cheap. Like I kind of agree there's a lot of upside in our stock.

这样我们就不一定非得在薪酬上跟实验室看齐。不过我觉得，你懂的，我们可以打造一套很有说服力的推介话术，说明我们的薪酬方案基本上比实验室的更好，而且为了招到最优秀的人才，我们愿意竭尽全力。So that enables us to not necessarily have to match with the labs, but I think you know create a compelling sales pitch for why our comp package is like basically better than the labs and we're willing to go very far to get the best talent.

【叹气】好，我们来快速问答一轮，不然我能跟你聊一整天。你的天使投资组合很棒，有 Open Router。呃，你刚才提到了 Lovable。你只能把所有的钱投到其中一个项目上。[sighs] Okay, we're going to do a quick fire around cuz otherwise I could talk to you all day. You have a great angel portfolio, Open Router. Uh you mentioned lovable before. You can put all of your money into only one.

为什么 Erik 会支持 TurboPufferWhy Erik Would Back TurboPuffer

我喜欢 Turuffer。我非常了解西蒙，他是个丹麦人。所以，你们有斯堪的纳维亚的渊源。嗯，他真是一位出色的企业家。我就是很喜欢这门生意。I love Turuffer. I know Simon really well as a Danish guy. So, you have the Scandinavian connection. Um, just a fantastic entrepreneur. I just love the business.

这项业务能做多大？How big can that business be?

这是个好问题。我是说，这算是一个有点专业化的领域。他们在做向量数据库。嗯，我觉得这可能是一个非常大的类别。如果我经营那家公司，我会有 500 种不同的想法，去拓展数据库、数据仓库以及其他类型的查询系统周边的许多相邻领域。这个类别可能会很大。That's a good question. I mean, it is like somewhat specialized. They're doing vector databases. Um, I I think it could be a very large category. If I ran that company, I would have 500 different ideas of how to expand into many adjacent things around databases, data warehouses, other types of query querying system. Like there there's it could be a large category.

Erik 对沙盒市场改变看法的地方What Erik Changed His Mind on About the Sandbox Market

过去 12 个月里，你在哪件事上改变想法最多？大概是沙盒市场的规模吧。我觉得这简直不可思议。你看着营收不断攀升，心里就想：好吧，它肯定马上就要停了。感觉我像是在对营收搞什么反向心理战，因为它就是一直往上走。我心想，这到底是怎么回事？它就这么不停地增长，而我已经错了好多次了。当然，是往好的方向错。这个领域发展得这么大，真是令人难以置信。What have you changed your mind on most in the last 12 months? probably the magnitude of the sandbox space. I think it's kind of insane. Like I look at the revenue and it just keeps going up and I'm like, well, clearly it has to stop right now. And I think I'm like doing some sort of reverse psychology on the revenue because it just keeps going up. I'm like, what is going on? It just keeps growing and growing and like I've been wrong so many times. Like, you know, in a good way, like, you know, and and so it's incredible how large that space has gotten.

埃里克会避免投资的人工智能公司Which AI Companies Erik Would Avoid Investing In

你认为当今人工智能领域最过热的类别是什么？What do you think is the most overheated category within AI today?

哎呀。我，我不知道。我，我不觉得有什么东西过热。我，我想说，我有点担心的一类公司，是那些依赖持续注入股权资本的公司。我想我不会投资这类公司。呃，而且这样的公司很多，我，我，我会担心任何一种情况：如果风险投资收紧，他们就会很难再筹到更多资金。我认为，重要的是每一轮融资都要像最后一轮那样去争取，而且要有一条切实可行的商业化和营收路径。Oh boy. I I don't know. I I don't think anything is overheated. I I will say like one of the things that I'm a little nervous about is companies that are dependent on continual infusion of equity capital. I think I would not invest in them. Uh and and there's a lot of them that I I I would be nervous about anything where like if there's a venture capital pullback they are, you know, they will struggle to raise more money. I think it's important you race the the every round as if it's your last round and there's like a real path towards commercialization and revenue.

你有两个孩子。You got two kids.

两个孩子。Two kids.

做一个好爸爸、当一个好 CEO，最大的心得。Biggest lesson on being a good dad and being a good CEO.

呃，我是说，有时候我觉得这有点像……呃，你是说在如何平衡这方面有点像，还是说只是指做一个好爸爸？Uh I mean sometimes I feel like it's kind of similar like uh you mean like in terms of like how to balance it or do you mean in terms of just like being a good dad?

怎样才能成为一名好爸爸？What does it take to be a good dad?

为他们在人生中取得成功做好准备。我一直都在想，应该 push 孩子到什么程度才合适。我不是虎爸，但我觉得还是得稍微 push 一下孩子，让他们多接触一些东西。我不想将来出现这种情况：孩子回来跟我说：“嘿，爸，我真希望你当初让我做 X，或者让我做 Y。”但我也不想出现另一种情况：孩子 20 岁时回来跟我说：“嘿，爸，你当初为什么非要我们做 X，或者为什么非要我们做 Y？”所以，稍微 push 一下。我让他们学钢琴。Setting them up for success I in life. And I always like think about like the right amount to push the kids. I'm not a tiger dad, but like I think a little bit you need to push the kids a little bit to like get them exposure. I don't want to create, you know, in the future a situation where my kids come back to me and say, "Hey, dad, I wish you'd made me do X or I wish you made me do Y." But I also don't want to create a situation where my my kids come back to me when they're 20 and they say, "Hey, Dad, why did you make us do X or why did you make us do Y?" So, a little bit of pushing. I make them play piano.

我不知道为什么，但我觉得这可能是学习某些东西的好方法。我希望他们到了二三十岁的时候会真正感激。虽然他们现在没那么喜欢，但我觉得像这样的事情，你得稍微推他们一把，但不能推得太过。I don't know why but like I think it's like good way to like learn something that I hope you know when they're 20 30 they will actually appreciate they don't like it that much but I think stuff like that you got to push them a little bit but not too much.

我爸妈管得很松。你知道，我发现了数学和编程，他们就会说：“Eric，你为什么要做这么多数学题？你应该出去和其他孩子一样玩。”嗯，所以从某种意义上说，我其实希望他们当时能再多督促我一些，但我反正已经很努力地逼自己了，所以也无所谓。嗯，所以就给适度的推动吧。My my parents are very lax and you know I discovered math and and programming and they were like Eric why are you doing so much math like you should go out and play like the other kids. Uh so in a way I actually wish they would have pushed me even harder but I pushed myself so hard anyway so it doesn't matter. Uh so so let that like right amount of push.

你是怎么这么拼命逼自己的？你——抱歉，你其实来自一个人们会被告知出风头不太好的国家。我忘了那个词怎么说了，不过我以前有个瑞典女朋友。呃。How did you push yourself so hard? You're sorry. You're actually from a nation where you are told that it's like bad to stand out. I'm forgetting that word, but I had a Swedish girlfriend. Uh

y 法律。y law.

是啊。好像太显眼是不好的。Yeah. Where it's like it's bad to to stand out.

是啊，别以为自己有什么特别的。Yeah. Don't think you're special.

是啊。为什么？Yeah. Why?

但我、我不知道这是不是真的。我觉得人们对斯堪的纳维亚文化有很多误解。我确实觉得，他们很尊重那些追随梦想、努力做事的人，不管是像我刚才说的，做音乐、写书、做家具或艺术，还是创业。我其实觉得，人们非常尊重这种自我实现、追随梦想的精神。我想，这就是文化非常宽松的另一面：你会在某种程度上鼓励人们追随自己的梦想。我不知道，我的梦想就是做数学和编程。我喜欢那玩意儿，所以我就去做了。不过，如果你来自挪威，那里的税制基本上会让创业变得不可能。But I I don't know if that's true. Like I think there's a lot of misconceptions to Scandinavian culture. I do think there's a lot of like respect for people who follow their dream and like do things and like whether like I said you know it's music or writing books or you know making furniture or art like or being an entrepreneur like I actually think there's a lot of respect for I think this like you know self-actualization and following your dreams is like kind of highly regarded and I think you know it's like like that's the flip side of having a very laxed culture is like you kind of pursue people to follow their dreams and I don't know I my dream was like doing math and programming. I love that [ __ ] so I did that. Unless you're from Norway where a tax structure exists that basically makes it impossible to start a company.

是啊，我是说，挪威也有一些问题。Yeah, I mean Norway has some issues.

嗯Um

它们也几乎不好用。they also barely work.

是的，这确实如此。不过我们确实有主权财富基金。Yeah, this is very true. But we do have a sovereign wealth fund.

是的，他们很有钱。Yeah, they are rich.

谢天谢地。Thank god for that.

也许这有点像第一个后经济社会。我不知道。Maybe it's like the first post economic society. I don't know.

从这个词的多重含义来看，字面上几乎可以说是确定的。Literally almost in certain in in multiple meanings of the word.

为什么人工智能药物发现最令埃里克兴奋Why AI Drug Discovery Excites Erik Most

嗯，最后一个问题。你最期待什么？可以是任何事情。比如，我，我关注的是慢性病方面的药物研发。是我妈妈……Um final one for you. What are you most excited for? It can be anything. Like I I look at um drug discovery for kind of chronic conditions. is my mom

其实，药物发现算是我觉得特别酷的应用之一。我简直等不及想用上 AI 生成的药了。你知道，我年纪大了，皮肤也越来越差，而且我不知道，每次喝一杯啤酒，第二天就感觉糟透了。我不知道，给我来点我能吃的 AI 生成药吧。我想活得久一点，想健康地生活。你知道，而且我觉得……actually drug discovery is like one of the application I think is so incredibly cool like I I can't wait to take AI generated drugs you know I'm like old and my skin is getting bad and like I don't know like you know every time I drink a beer I feel like horrible the day after like I don't know give me all the AI generated drugs I can take like I I want to live long I want to live a healthy life I you know and I I think

你觉得那真的是一个现实可行的未来吗？do you think that is actually a realistic future

我觉得是这样，不过考虑到 FDA 和其他因素，这还需要一段时间。但我认为，如今在药物研发领域，尤其是 AI 辅助药物设计方面，已经取得了非常惊人的进展。我觉得有很多很酷的东西，也有很多值得关注的进展。I think so but I think with the FDA and other things it's going to take a while but I think there's so much incredible progress today in like drug in in AI AED drug design. I think there's so many cool stuff, so many things.

哥们，我真的特别喜欢这档节目。说实话，我真没想到你会这么有趣、坦诚又有魅力。你真的太棒了，非常感谢你。Dude, I've so enjoyed this show in a way that I I honestly wasn't expecting you to be this fun, open, charismatic. You've been amazing. So, thank you so much.

非常感谢你拥有它。这真的很有趣。Thank you so much for having it. This is a lot of fun.