ASML CEO：计算扩张的制造与供应链约束

简要描述Brief Description

我与 ASML 首席执行官面对面交谈——这是他告诉我的内容I Sat Down With ASML's CEO - Here's What He Told Me

目录Table of Contents

• 简介
  Intro
• ASML 首席执行官登台亮相
  ASML's CEO Takes The Stage
• 摩尔定律已经失效了吗？
  Is Moore's Law Dead?
• ASML 非同寻常的起源故事
  ASML's Unconventional Origin Story
• EUV 背后的信任
  The Trust Behind EUV
• 最好的创意会胜出吗？
  Does The Best Idea Win?
• AI 的真正瓶颈：数据
  AI's Real Bottleneck: Data
• 深入了解 Mistral 合作伙伴关系
  Inside The Mistral Partnership
• ASML 如何支持初创企业
  How ASML Backs Startups
• 欧洲的万亿美元公司难题
  Europe's Trillion-Dollar Company Problem
• 人工智能对内存价格的影响
  AI's Impact On Memory Prices
• 给克里斯托夫的一份惊喜礼物
  A Surprise Gift For Christophe

简介Intro

所以，ASML给你打电话可不是每天都会发生的事，但几个月前我就遇上了。当时我正忙着自己的事，突然收到一封邮件，上面写着：“嗨，Ian，你是分析师。你能不能在阿姆斯特丹一场面向早期投资者和初创公司的会议上，和我们的CEO主持一场炉边谈话？”我当时想：“好啊，为什么不呢？”这就是那场谈话。 你的最低规格是什么？ 感谢大家到场。感谢 Hello Tomorrow 和 ASML 邀请我。对于还不认识我的各位，我叫 Ian Cutress 博士，是一名行业分析师。我的工作是研究半导体领域中各种硅芯片的情况。我的专业背景是物理化学。呃，我做过一段时间记者，如今还运营着一个名为 Tech Potato 的 YouTube 频道。我的职业经历始终围绕着硅芯片的编程以及硅架构的构成。So, it's not every day ASML gives you a phone call, but that's what happened to me a couple of months ago. Minding my own business, and I get an email that says, "Hey, Ian, you're an analyst. Can you host a fireside chat with our CEO at a conference for early stage investors and startup companies in Amsterdam?" I'm like, "Yeah, why not?" This is that talk. What's your minimum specification? Thank you all for coming. Thank you for Hello Tomorrow and ASML for inviting me. For those of you who don't know who I am, my name is Dr. Ian Cutress. I am a industry analyst. It's my job to look at all the silicon in play in the semiconductor space. My background is physical chemistry. Uh I became a journalist for a little while, and today I now also run a YouTube channel called Tech Potato. My background has always been about programming silicon and the makeup of silicon architecture.

嗯，我记得当年 CUDA 还是 0.1 版本的时候，我就开始接触它了。那段日子真不好过，不过它帮我拿到了学位论文，所以我还是挺开心的。嗯，是这样，我花很多时间和 ASML 这样的公司交流，也会和它们在晶圆代工领域的客户，以及所有在那些代工厂生产芯片的公司交流。嗯，不过如今聊芯片，不能不提那个叫 AI 的小东西。它正在蓬勃发展、不断演进，我知道现在有很多人都在这个领域工作。嗯，AI 热潮是真实存在的，不只是在硬件方面，也体现在软件方面，而且这项技术正在迎来几次新的演进，最重要的领域尤其如此。嗯，有时候，比如说你关注这个领域的软件发展，会觉得它变化快得惊人。嗯，我记得几年前我们还在聊卷积神经网络，后来轮到 Transformer 成为焦点，而现在大家都在谈智能体式 AI。Um I remember dealing with CUDA back when it was version 0.1. Those were terrible days, but it it got me a thesis, so I'm quite happy. Um but yeah, I spend a lot of my time speaking to companies like ASML, but also their clients in the foundry space, and all of the companies who build chips at those foundries. Um but we can't talk about chips these days without mentioning the little thing called AI. It's uh it it's living, it's breathing, and I know a lot of you are working in there today. Um but the AI boom is real, not just in hardware, but in software, and we're coming up against a few new evolutions of the technology where it matters most. Um and sometimes, if you, for example, track the software space in this, it feels like it's moving so fast. Um I I remember a few years ago we were talking about having convolutional neural networks, then transformers were the thing, and now it's all about agentic AI.

我上周刚从台湾的贸易展 Computex 回来，现场有 15 万人。大家问来问去，都是智能体 AI、智能体 AI、智能体 AI。另一场讨论则围绕内存的宏观经济，当然，我们都希望内存能便宜一些。但问题是，我打交道的公司都面临一个棘手难题：它们正努力将自身整合进极其复杂的基础设施中。说实话，正是这套基础设施在推动当今 AI 的发展。推动 AI 的不只是芯片，还有安装部署、应用场景、构建在其上的软件，以及它们之间的互连。成千上万家公司都在这些领域耕耘，从英特尔、博通这样的大公司到初创企业，面临的都是同一个问题：我们该如何让尖端技术和尖端科学惠及大众？而且，在一切发展如此迅速的情况下，我们又该如何让它们在今天就发挥作用，而不是等上三年？I just came from a trade show in Taiwan last week called Computex, 150,000 people. Every question, agentic AI, agentic AI, agentic AI. And then the other conversation was about the macroeconomics around memory, and of course we'd all like sort of cheaper memory. But the thing is, the companies I deal with all have a hard problem. They're trying to integrate themselves into a very complex infrastructure, and realistically it's the infrastructure that's helping build AI today. It's not just the chips, it's the installation, it's the use case, it's the software built on top, and the interconnects between them. We thousands of companies working in each of those spaces, all of which from big companies like the Intels, the Broadcoms, down to the startups, all have the same issue. How do we bring hard technology, hard science to the masses, and because everything's moving so fast, how do we make it relevant today, not in 3 years.

我想在座的很多人现在都在进行这样的对话。但我们该如何将这项深层技术推向市场呢？这其中还有很多关于电力和投资的问题。你们也可以读读晶圆厂和代工厂的用水情况，这一直是个很有意思的话题。不过，今天我的嘉宾是来自 ASML 的 Kristof，他是最早展示如何将这类深奥的硬科学应用到基础设施中的人之一。几周前的一场会议上，他介绍了他们现在如何在整个基础设施中运用 AI，帮助优化生产设备，让代工合作伙伴的营收实现最大化。如果你去过半导体晶圆厂，就会知道这些设备必须保持 80% 到 90% 的利用率，因为光是让它们持续运行，每分钟就要烧掉成千上万美元的运营开支。And I think a lot of you in this room are having those conversations right now. But how do we bring this deep technology into the market? Now, there's a lot about power and investment that also play into this. You can read about water usage of fabs and foundries as well. It's always a very interesting topic. But my guest today, Kristof from ASML, he is one of the first to showcase how they implemented this sort of deep hard science into their infrastructure. And today, at a conference a couple weeks ago, he was presenting how they're now using AI across their infrastructure to help optimize um their production tools so that their foundry partners can maximize their revenue. If you've ever been to a semiconductor fab, you'll know these things have to operate at 80 90% utilization cuz every minute they're burning thousands and thousands of dollars just in opex to keep up and running.

好了，我讲得够久了。我知道 Kristof 有几句话要说，接下来让我们欢迎 Kristof Fouquet 上台。Now, I've spoken for long enough. I know Kristof's got a few things to say, so please let me welcome on Kristof Fouquet

ASML 首席执行官登台亮相ASML's CEO Takes The Stage

致 ASML。很高兴见到你，我的朋友。for ASML. Good to see you, my friend.

主持人：谢谢你，Jan。Host: Thank you, Jan.

嘉宾：[哼了一声]Guest: [snorts]

嘉宾：嗯，各位，下午好。今天能和大家相聚，我感到非常荣幸。我想大家都知道，ASML所处的半导体行业如今很容易就延伸到了人工智能领域，正处于一个非常、非常令人振奋的时期。我们似乎相信，创新方面的机遇将呈指数级增长，这基本上是因为人工智能在未来几年能够带来的可能性。所以我非常高兴来到这里，因为大家知道，人们对于人工智能和半导体还有一点常常会忽略：要让这个梦想成真、得以实现，我们还需要在能源、材料、医疗保健等领域实现重大的、重大的创新。我刚才在展会上稍微逛了逛，看到大家一直在努力的所有这些事情。我想，你们所有人都在非常、非常努力地提出新的想法、新的概念，基本上是为了支持这个非凡的梦想。Guest: Well, good afternoon, uh everyone. It's a great pleasure to uh join you today. I think you know that uh the industry ASML is in, semiconductor, which now is quite easily extended to AI, is living a very, very exciting time. Time where we seems to believe that the number of opportunities when it comes to innovation is going to grow exponentially because basically of what AI will enable in the next few years. So, I'm very happy to be here because, you know, what people forget also a bit about AI, about semiconductor, is that in order for that dream to become true, to realize, we are going to need major, major innovations in energy, in material, in health care, in all the things, you know, I was walking a bit around in the show, all the things some of you have been working on and all of you I think are trying very, very hard to come up with new ideas, new concept to support basically this uh extraordinary dream.

我也很高兴来到这里，因为我了解到，现场有来自大约48个不同国家的人。因此，这不仅仅关乎荷兰，也不仅仅关乎欧洲，而是范围广阔得多。我们在 ASML 坚信，要让创新惠及每一个地方的每一个人，能够开展合作，并在全球建立强大的生态系统，至关重要。我有机会看到展会现场汇聚了来自不同背景的人。对于我围绕创新这一主题所接触到的一些人所展现出的创造力、活力和热情，我感到非常、非常惊叹。这真是太棒了。当然，和任何生态系统一样，其中也有几家规模庞大、根基深厚的公司，比如 Nvidia、TSMC，ASML 也是其中之一。I'm also happy to be here because I understood that there are about 48 different countries represented. So, it's not only about the Netherlands, it's not only about Europe. Uh it's much broader than that. And in ASML, we strongly believe that for innovation to reach everyone everywhere, it's extremely important to be able to collaborate and build basically some very strong ecosystem around the world. So, I had a chance to see basically these very diverse origins around the show. And I was very, very impressed by the amount of creativity, the amount of energy, passion of some of the people I've talked to around basically the topic of innovation. So, this is great. And you know, of course, like in any ecosystem, there there is a few big, established company, Nvidia, TSMC, ASML is one of them.

但我想我们都知道，如果没有各位的参与，如果未来几年没有更多创新和创意变成现实，那么也许梦想终究无法完全实现。所以，再次感谢，很高兴来到这里。呃，我知道蒂安娜准备了很多问题。我会尽力一一回答。呃，再次感谢，能来到这里我真的很荣幸。非常感谢。But I think that we all know that without all of you, without more innovation, more creativity coming to life in the next few years, then maybe at some point the dream doesn't become fully reality. So, again, very happy to be here. Uh I know that Tiana has prepared a lot of questions. I will do my best to to try to answer those. Uh but again, it's a real pleasure to be here. Thank you very much.

摩尔定律已死了吗？Is Moore's Law Dead?

主持人：那么，Kristof，我实话实说。我算是个有点儿迷ASML的人。对吧？作为一名工程师，你们公司打造出来的那些东西，简直像魔法一样。我知道你们内部也争论过，造出这些东西到底有多少成分是魔法。但过去30多年里，半导体领域有个始终占据主导地位的概念，那就是摩尔定律。对吧？也就是免费获得大量性能提升。你们公司正处于最前沿，打造最新一代晶体管。我跟英特尔聊时——他们可是摩尔定律的发源地——他们说这条定律仍然有效。要是我跟英伟达的黄仁勋聊，他会说它已经失效了。嗯，要是我跟TSMC的朋友Kevin Zhang博士聊，他会说：“我不在乎。”那么，你怎么看？Host: So, Kristof, I'll be honest. I'm kind of a bit of an ASML fanboy. Right? As a as as an engineer, the stuff you you got your company puts together, feels like magic. And I know you've had the arguments internally about how much magic is involved in getting this stuff. But one of the overriding things when it comes to semiconductors over the past 30-plus years has been this concept of Moore's Law. Right? Getting a lot of performance for free. And you're a company that's at the leading edge of building the latest generation transistors. When I speak to Intel, the home of law, they say it's still alive. If I speak to Jensen Huang at Nvidia, he says it's dead. Um if I speak to Dr. Kevin Zhang, our friend over at TSML at at TSMC, uh he said, "I don't care." So, where do you sit?

嘉宾：嗯，我认为，人们围绕摩尔定律可能有不同看法，而你从中看到的是，实际上摩尔定律有很多不同版本，对吧？它有很多很多种含义。我最喜欢的版本是：每两年，每个芯片上的晶体管数量都应该翻一番。这条定律推动了这个行业很多很多年。但说实话，如果你看看如今人工智能领域正在发生的事情，以及黄仁勋的评论，就会发现人工智能需要的远不止这些。看看最先进的芯片和最先进的人工智能产品，你会发现增长速度不是每两年翻两倍，而是翻十六倍。所以，[清嗓子] 人工智能行业对晶体管的需求要大得多，无论是逻辑电路还是存储器，都远超摩尔定律过去所能提供的水平。Guest: Well, I think what you what you see through the different opinions people may have around Moore's Law is that there are a lot of different version of Moore's Law, in fact, right? It means many, many things. The one I like the most is the law that says that every 2 years the number of transistor per chip should double. And that has driven the industry for many, many, many years. But to be honest, if you look at what's happening today with AI, therefore, Jensen comments, AI needs a lot more than that. So, when you look at the most advanced chips, the most advanced product, AI product, you're not looking at a two times every 2 years, you're looking at a 16 time every 2 years. So, the [clears throat] industry, the AI industry needs a lot more transistor both for logic and memory than Moore's Law used to provide.

所以，这就是为什么黄仁勋说“摩尔定律已死”。你也可以说，人工智能给摩尔定律打了兴奋剂，因为我们需要做的远不止这些。实际上，发生的是摩尔定律大幅加速了，对晶体管和半导体的需求也大幅增长。你知道，这正是整个行业目前正在经历的情况。当然，这让我们所有人都感到非常振奋。So, this is why Jensen said, "Moore's Law is dead." Well, you could say also that, you know, Moore's Law has been put on steroids by AI because we need to do a lot more than that. So, what's really happened is, if anything, a huge acceleration of Moore's Law. A huge acceleration of the appetite for transistors, semiconductor. And, you know, this is a bit what, uh, the industry is going through right now. And this is, uh, very exciting, of course, for for all of us.

主持人：我——我相信你上周看到了新闻。华为宣布重新——算是重新将摩尔定律归类为 Tao scaling，认为它不只是晶体管，还包括封装、互连以及整个系统。你认同这种看法吗？Host: It's I I'm sure you saw the news last week. Huawei announced their re- sort of reclassification of Moore's Law as Tao scaling to be this sort of it's not just the transistor, it's also the package, it's also the interconnect, it's also the system. Do you agree with that view?

嘉宾：嗯，我想如果回到那个，呃，我想，呃，那个非常，呃，早的日子，呃，摩尔博士，呃，提出我们所熟知的摩尔定律时，他就已经说过，密度可以通过缩小尺寸来实现，也就是在单位面积内放入更多晶体管；但也可以通过将一些晶体管封装在一起实现。所以，我认为，谈到如何实现更高的密度，缩小尺寸显然是一种方法，而我们在 ASML 称之为 3D 集成的技术，正越来越多地与之相辅相成。这可以是先进封装，也可以是把晶圆叠在一起，或者把芯片叠在一起。所以，当密度提升得这么快时，呃，事实是两种方法都不可或缺。如果无法缩小尺寸——这有点像华为几周前告诉我们的情况——那就必须更多地采用其他方法。Guest: Well, I think if you go back to, uh, I think, uh, the very, uh, day, uh, when, uh, Dr. Moore uh, presented, uh, the Moore's Law as we know it, he he already said that density would be achieved by scaling, so putting more transistor per unit of areas, but also by packaging some of the transistors together. So, I think when you look at how you can, uh, achieve more density, scaling is obviously one way to do it, which is being complemented more and more by what we call in ASML 3D integration. That can be advanced packaging, but that can be also, you know, stacking wafer together or die together. So, when you move so fast on density, uh, the truth is you're going to need both. And if you cannot scale, which is a bit what Huawei told us a few weeks ago, then you have to do more of the other things.

你必须实现更高程度的集成。所以你知道，这是两个维度，而这两个维度相乘就得到了密度。如果你需要每两年将晶体管数量提高16倍，就必须在这两个维度上都以非常非常快的速度推进。You have to do more integration. So, you know, it's two axes, and, you know, the the multiplication of the two axes give you the density. And if you need to go 16 times more transistor every 2 years, you have to move very very fast on both axes.

ASML 非同寻常的起源故事ASML's Unconventional Origin Story

主持人：那么，稍微换个话题。嗯，ASML 在推动光刻技术发展方面有着悠久的历史。不过，这家公司的创立方式和大多数公司有些不同。能否请你解释一下？Host: So, ch- changing tack a little bit. Um ASML has has a long history at the advancement of uh lithography. But the way the company was founded is a little bit different to most. I wonder if you can help explain.

嘉宾：嗯，你知道，这要追溯到40年前。当时我还是个很小的孩子。所以我只能告诉你我听说的情况。嗯，ASML是从飞利浦分拆出来的。当时半导体产业刚刚兴起。回看40年前，其实有几家公司在做半导体，我觉得IBM就是个很好的例子，它们都在寻求把所有东西整合起来。比如，IBM自己制造光刻机以及其他所有设备。后来这个行业开始发展，飞利浦基本上意识到，也许为这个行业提供光刻设备是个不错的想法。日本的尼康和佳能也有同样的想法。所以，最初的思路就是：“好，那我们就专注做这个。”我觉得，ASML的发展过程中有一点非常重要，我认为过去40年来一直如此，那就是始终与客户合作，因为只有客户才能告诉我们该做什么、我们必须做什么；同时也要与供应商合作。Guest: Well, you know, this goes back uh 40 years ago. So, I was a still a very young kid. So, I would tell you what I heard about it. But um um ASML uh is a spin-off from Philips. And the spin-off happened at the time where, you know, semiconductor was just happening. And if you look 40 years ago, in fact, uh a few companies doing semiconductor, I think IBM is a good example, uh were looking for complete integration of everything. So, IBM, for example, was doing its own lithography machine and everything else. And the industry started to grow, and basically Philips understood that, well, maybe it was an idea to provide uh lithography tool to the industry. Uh the Japanese, Nikon, Canon had the same idea. So, it started by saying, "Okay, let's specialize on this." And then, I think what was very important in the way ASML has grown, this has been a theme for, I think, the last 40 years, was to always do that in collaboration with customers, because customer were the only people who could tell us what to do, what we had to do, and with suppliers.

第二点很重要，因为与日本公司不同，ASML决定选择系统集成，而非垂直整合。And the second part is important because ASML, to the contrary, for example, of uh the Japanese company, decided to go for system integration rather than vertical integration.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：通过选择系统集成，我们得以与最优秀的合作伙伴并肩前行。Guest: And by choosing system integration we were capable to walk with the very best partner

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：工具的每一个部件都是如此。我们就是这样开始与蔡司合作光学系统的，而且我们已经携手合作了40年。比如，VDL就是一个很好的例子，在荷兰非常有名。后来是为EUV与Trumpf合作，再后来是AI领域的Mistral。但每一次，我们都会说：我们就是要与最优秀者同行。Guest: for every single part of the tool. So, this is how we ended up working with Zeiss on the optic and we've been together also for 40 years. VDL, for example, is a good example. Very well known in the Netherlands. More recently, Trump for EUV. More recently, Mistral when it comes to AI. But, every time we say we're going to just go and walk with the best.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：ASML要做的，就是从客户那里了解该做什么，然后把所有这些整合起来去实现。所以，这、这确实就是我所说的公司的理念。这个理念直到今天仍然充满活力。Guest: And the job of ASML will be to understand from the customer what to do and to do it by putting all of that together. So, this this is really, I would say, the the philosophy of the company. A philosophy that is still going very strong today as we speak.

主持人：你提到大家都在尝试打造自己的光刻设备，这很有意思。因为据我了解，ASML成立时，许多与之竞争的公司也共同投资了ASML。你觉得这产生了多大的影响？Host: It's interesting you bring up everybody trying to build their own lithography tool cuz the way I also understand it is that at the time when ASML was formed, a lot of those competing companies also co-invested into ASML. How much of an impact do you think that had?

嘉宾：嗯，你知道，这非常重要，因为和任何公司一样，我相信在座的很多人都会明白这一点。你可能拥有这项技术，但有时却无法实现规模化。Guest: Well, you know, it was very important because like any company, I'm sure lots of the people in the room will recognize that. You can have the technology but sometime you cannot scale.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：我们开发 EUV 时，公司经营状况良好，因为我们的 DPUV 技术业务表现不错，但还没有富裕到能够为研发投入足够的资金。正因如此，共同投资变得很重要。我们对客户说的是：“你们会需要这款产品。我们会研发它。但如果只靠我们自己的资源来做，耗时会太长。”在这个过程中，我们还进行了整合，比如收购了 Cymer 这样的公司，而它对 EUV 的成功至关重要。因此，当你有一项非常重要的技术时，具备扩大规模的能力非常重要。我认为，一个很好的办法就是确保将来会使用这项技术的人也为扩大规模出一份力。我认为这确实是个相当不错的模式。Guest: And when we were developing EUV the company was healthy because we had a good business on our DPUV technology but not wealthy enough in order to put the right amount of money, if you want, in R&D. And this is where co-investment became important. And what we told our customer is well, you're going to need this product. We're are to do it. But, if we do it with our own means, it will take too long. And on the way we also integrated, you know, for example, a company like Cymer that was critical to the success of EUV. So it's very important when you have something very important to be able to scale. And I think one good way to do that is make sure that the people who will use your technology contribute to that scaling. I think that's in fact a pretty good pretty good model.

主持人：是……不过，有了这些合作，你是如何……的？Host: It's But with those collaborations, how do you

EUV 背后的信任The Trust Behind EUV

你能不能介绍一下，这类合作具体包含哪些内容？比如说，EUV 的路线图是按几十年的跨度来制定的，而且涉及非常艰深的科学。我是说，对于不了解 EUV 发展历程的人来说，它在 80 年代就有了理论设想。人们原以为它能在 90 年代就准备就绪，结果又花了 20 年才实现。所以，你能不能谈谈这类合作具体都涉及些什么？Can you describe kind of what goes into those collaborations when the road map, for example, for EUV is defined by decades and involve really hard science? I mean for those of you who don't know the story of EUV, it was theorized in the '80s. People assumed it would be ready in the '90s, and it took another 20 years beyond that. So can you yeah, go into what goes into those collaborations?

嘉宾：是的，所以，要做到你所描述的事情，你需要愿意分享信息。Guest: Yeah, so to to be able to do what you describe you need to be willing to share information

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：嗯，未来 5 年、10 年，有时甚至 15 年的计划，有时是梦想。当然，我们并不知道确切会发生什么，毕竟谁知道 15 年后究竟会发生什么呢？但要做到这一点，你需要对将要共事的人抱有极大的信任。你得确信，与你分享信息的人不会利用这些信息来对付你，比如借此创造筹码，推出售价过高的产品，或者开发一种会把你拒之门外的技术。我认为，这一直是 ASML 成功的关键因素之一，也让我们能够着眼长远。归根结底，建立这种信任至关重要。这始终是我们在公司里最优先考虑的事情。有很多事情我们愿意妥协，有时甚至愿意放弃，但有一样东西我们绝不想失去，那就是客户和合作伙伴对我们的信任，因为一旦失去这种信任，我们知道，眼前的前景就会急剧收窄。Guest: uh plans, sometime dreams you have for the next 5, 10, sometime 15 years. Without knowing, of course, exactly what's going to happen because who knows what's really happen in 15 years from now. But to do that you need to have a huge amount of trust with the people you are going to work with. So you need to know that the people you share the information with are not going to use this information against you to create, you know, leverage, to create product they may sell for too much money, or to create a technology they will cut you off from. And that's been, I think, one of the key element of the success of ASML and the ability to look at the long term. It has to build this trust basically. And that's always what we put first in the company. There there's a lot of things we're willing to compromise, maybe lose sometime, but the one thing we never want to lose is the trust from our customer, from our partner, because if we lose that, we know that the horizon is going to shrink dramatically.

这样一来，我们就无法开发出下一个伟大的产品了，因为正如你所说，这些产品的研发周期长达10到15年，而对很多人来说……And then we won't be able to develop the next great product because as you said, those products have a 10-15 years lead time, which for a lot of people

主持人：太长了。Host: It's too long.

嘉宾：非常吓人。好吧，不过对我们来说，确实需要把材料、技术、软件和算法整合起来，才能让产品运转起来。所以，我们正准备把 INA 系统部署到客户的生产环境中。我们在 2012 至 2013 年启动了这个项目。是的，它……Guest: is very scary. All right, but for us it's it's a bit what it takes indeed to bring materials, technology, software, algorithm together and and get a product going. So we're you know, about to move our INA system in production our customer. We started the program in 2012-13. Yeah, it's it

主持人：你这么说真好，而且作为一家公司，ASML 处于这样一个位置，能够提供高度差异化的产品，而如果没有所有这些合作，其他任何人都不可能真正做到这一点。这难道不会让你们有机会接触并考虑很多关于如何解决某些艰深科学问题的糟糕想法吗？嗯，你们如何判断什么能推动进展？又如何区分，比如说，一个绝妙的想法和最终真正成功的想法？Host: It It's great that you say that and it's great that as a company ASML's in that position where you offer such that highly differentiated that nobody else can realistically build without having all these collaborations. Does that not open yourselves up to entertaining a lot of bad ideas about how to solve some of these hard science problems? Um how do you determine what accelerates what separates for example, what may be a brilliant idea from what ultimately ends up being the successful one?

嘉宾：是的，我觉得，首先你得认真想清楚自己真正需要什么，对吧？归根结底，还是要回到你想解决的问题是什么。单纯为了创新而创新是不够的。你得知道自己要解决什么问题。而这通常需要大量的创新、创造力，我还要说，也需要犯很多错。所以，你得愿意从犯错中学习，从失败中学习。Guest: Yeah, so I think that um you know, first you have to really decide what you really need. Right? So it goes back to what is the problem you're trying to solve. Just being creative for the purpose of being creative is not enough. You need to know what is the problem you're going to solve. And that usually calls for a lot of innovation, creativity, and I would say a lot of mistake. So, you have to be willing to learn by making mistake, to learn by failing.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：我总是说，我的意思是，EUV，呃，当然是一个很了不起的故事。如今每个人都把EUV看作——你可以说是一个奇迹，对吧？或者说，呃，像是从天而降的东西。但我们开发EUV大概花了20年。Guest: I always say I mean EUV uh is a great story, of course, today. Everyone look at EUV as a you call it a miracle, right? Or uh something that came uh from the sky. But, it took us most probably 20 years to develop EUV.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：也许最初的15年，甚至可能是最初的18年，都只是一连串令人痛苦的错误，对吧？很长一段时间里，我们都找不到一些关键问题的解决方案。其中一个问题就是如何为EUV光源提供足够的功率。直到我想说，ASML工程师的坚韧不拔终于让我们取得了一些突破。不过，如果你知道我们一路上经历了多少糟糕的设计、失望，以及重大的——你知道——灾难，那真是多得惊人。Guest: And maybe the first 15, maybe the first even 18 years were just a succession of very painful mistakes. Right? And for a long time, we couldn't find the solution to some key problem. One of them was how to get enough power on the EUV source. Until I would say the the resilience of the engineers of ASML was such that we got some breakthroughs. But, if you knew the amount of bad design, uh disappointments, uh major, you know, disaster we had on the way, this was enormous.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：而人们就这么一直往前走。你必须很快就愿意意识到，也许你之前所想的任何事情……Guest: And the people just kept going. And you have to be willing very quickly to realize that maybe whatever you thought

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：如果行不通，你就得改用完全不同的方法。所以你必须能做到这一点，而不是做其他事情，对吧？这需要投入大量注意力和专注力。所以，正如我想说的，留给随便冒出什么想法的空间并不多。你知道，你需要始终专注于最终想要解决的问题。Guest: didn't work out, and you have to go to a completely different approach. So, you have to be able to do that. And not nothing else. Right? This require a lot of attention, a lot of focus. So, there's not too much space, what I'm trying to say, for just random ideas. You know, you you need to stay focused on the on the problem you want to solve at the end.

主持人：那么，我们稍微换个角度。因为我知道，现场很多人正处于另一边：他们正在构思自己的创意，或投资于深度科技，希望它能为大型企业集团提供解决方案。当你站在另一边时，情况会有多大变化？你有什么建议？Host: So, so flip that a little bit because I know a lot of people in the room are on the other side of that. They're the ones building their ideas or investing in the deep technology that could be a solution for a bigger business for a multi-glomerate. How much does that change when you're on the other side and what advice would you give?

嘉宾：我认为它从来没有变过。我觉得，对在座的每个人来说，关键仍然是：你想解决的问题是什么？这是第一个问题。Guest: I think it it never change. I think that you know the key for everyone in the room is again what is the problem you are trying to solve? That's question number one.

主持人：是的。Host: Yeah.

嘉宾：第二个问题是，你真的能找到那些每天都在应对这些问题的人吗？找到一个会欢迎你的人？Guest: Question number two is can you really identify people that really deal with those problems every day? Someone that will welcome you

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

客人：[清了清嗓子]Guest: [clears throat]

主持人：帮他们解决那个问题。这就是你之后所说的客户。Host: to solve that problem for them. That's what later you will call customers.

客人：嗯。Guest: Mhm.

主持人：如果你清楚自己想解决什么问题，也非常了解想为哪些人解决这个问题，那就开始和这些人合作，把全部精力都放在这个问题上。在座的各位迟早都得这么做。因为如果不这么做，你们再好的想法大多也会不了了之。所以，真正伟大的想法和最终发展成一门生意的想法之间，差别就在于那几个关键要素。Host: And if you have a good idea of what is the problem you want to solve and a very good idea of the people you want to solve it for then start to work with those people and put all your energy on that problem. And anyone in this room at some point of time will have to do that. Because if they don't you know, whatever great idea they had mostly would go nowhere. So what makes the difference between really a great idea and an idea that become a business are those few key elements.

最好的想法会胜出吗？Does The Best Idea Win?

主持人：最好的想法总是能胜出吗？Host: Does the best idea always win?

嘉宾：我觉得不是，因为我们稍微谈到的另一个要素是可扩展性。嗯，你知道，总会有一个时候，你必须把事情重复做不止一次，对吧？比如说，对我们来说，当然可以制造一台紫外线设备，但挑战在于制造数百台，把它们运往世界各地，并确保它们一直运行。Guest: I think that no because the other element we talked a bit about it is scalability. Um you know, there's always a point where you have to do things more than once. Right? So for example, for us of course, we can make one UV machines but the challenge is to make hundreds of them, ship them all over the world, and make sure that they run all the time.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：为了做到这一点，你们总有一天得把所做的事情真正落实到运营层面。你们得确保供应链到位。你知道，如今大家都意识到供应链有多重要。但我可以告诉你，大多数公司如果不重视供应链，就会陷入很大的麻烦。供应链始终都很重要。公司发展到某个阶段时，那些提出想法、做出原型、具有科学背景的人会意识到，他们还需要进一步了解运营是如何运作的，这样才能真正把想法发展成一门生意。所以，运营非常、非常重要。Guest: And in order to do that, you have to operationalize at some point what you do. You have to make sure supply chain is there. You know, people realize nowadays how important is a supply chain. But I can tell you that most company uh can get in real trouble if they don't take care of the supply chain. Supply chain is always important. And then there is a stage in the life of a company where the people who had the idea, made the prototype, were scientific, realize they also need to understand a bit more on how operation works, so that they can really scale the idea into a business. So, operation is is very, very important.

AI真正的瓶颈：数据AI's Real Bottleneck: Data

主持人：那么，接下来聊聊这个……你知道，我想聊聊年度热词，也就是这种 AI 机器学习。嗯，我注意到，尤其是过去几个月，我们开始谈论它时，不再只是从纯软件行业的角度出发，而是更多地把它放在实体层面，以及我们面临的这类基础设施挑战中来讨论。嗯，这对那些正在使用它、为它提供底层支持的人来说，会带来什么变化？我敢肯定，在座有很多人都在努力调整这项技术，以适应自己正在做的事情。这跟……相比如何？Host: So, moving on to the to you know, to the word of the year, I think, this sort of AI machine learning. Um I've noticed that over the especially last couple of months, we're now starting to talk about it not just in a uh pure software industrial, we're talking about it more in a physical and this sort of infrastructure challenge that we have. Um how does that change for the people who are working with it and underneath it? And I'm pretty sure it's a lot of people in this room um trying to adapt that technology to to to what they're doing. How does that compare to

嘉宾：[哼了一声]Guest: [snorts]

主持人：尤其是某种程度上来说，人工智能出现之前的时代？Host: especially sort of pre-AI era?

客人：嗯。Guest: Yeah.

主持人：嗯。Host: Um

嘉宾：嗯，我觉得对我来说，有一点需要认识到：也许直到今天，甚至明天，AI 最重要的部分都不是模型，而是数据。Guest: Well, I I think for me one thing to to realize is most probably still today most probably also tomorrow, the most important part of AI is not the model, it's the data.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：几年前，人工智能之所以兴起，当然是因为人们开发了一些模型。但他们之所以能做到这一点，唯一的原因是，多年来围绕[清嗓子]病房收集了大量数据，而这些数据后来可以被使用。所以，当你思考人工智能，尤其是把它作为一个行业、一家公司或一家初创企业来考虑时，首先要想的是：你产生了哪些独有的数据，可以用来训练一些强大的算法，从而更快地开发产品、提升产品性能，并以某种方式推动你现在所做的一切。人工智能确实能在这方面提供很大帮助。但你得有数据、有信息来训练它，否则就会非常困难。如果你有这些数据，就必须开发我所说的定制化人工智能模型，让它能更好地适应你所做的事情。Guest: The reason why uh AI came to life a few years ago was of course because people develop some models but the only reason they could do that it's because there was a huge amount of data that had been collected for many years around the [clears throat] wards and that could become available. So when you think about AI especially as a industry as a company as a startup the first thing to think about is what are the data you generate that are unique to yourself that you could use to feed potentially some of those powerful algorithm in order to develop things faster in order to improve the performance of your product in order in some way to to boost everything you do today. And there AI can really help. But you need to have the data the information to feed it. If not it's very difficult. And if you have that you have to develop what I would call customized AI model that will be more basically adapted to what you do.

这就是为什么我认为，N&M 模型是第一步，但它们主要针对的是我所说的互联网数据集。人们越来越多地谈论智能体 AI、物理模型，因为这与企业和行业正在做的事情更加接近。所以我认为，这种转变具有巨大的价值。我仍然相信，AI 对行业最大的价值，在于能够加速创新、提升性能等等，并且能在许许多多不同的领域发挥作用，对吧？半导体行业如此，医疗保健如此，教育如此，能源也是如此，几乎所有技术垂直领域都是如此。And this is why I think you know N&M models were a first step but they are mostly addressing what I would call the internet data set. People are talking more and more about you know agentic AI about physical model because this comes a lot closer to what companies to what industry is doing. So I think that transition is really a huge value. I still believe that the biggest value of AI will be for the industry will be the ability to accelerate innovation ability to you know improve performance etc. etc. on many many many different places right? It's true for semiconductor it's true for health care, it's true for education, it's true for energy, uh it's true for pretty much any uh any uh vertical axis of of technology.

主持人：那么，最近你宣布了这件事……Host: So, recently you've announced this

Mistral 合作关系内幕Inside The Mistral Partnership

与 Mistral 的合作。呃，几周前我有幸参加了一场会议，你在那里详细介绍了其中一些细节。Mistral 以开放模型闻名，而你刚才谈到了拥有一套专门针对该界面的数据集有多重要。那么，你能否详细讲讲，ASML 作为一家公司是如何整合这些机器学习工具的？它们具体改善了什么？partnership with Mistral. And uh I was lucky to attend a conference a few weeks ago where you went into some of the details on that. Now, Mistral's known for having open models, and you just spoken about having the importance of having essentially a data set specific for the for the uh interface. So, can you go into a little bit of detail about how as a company ASML you're integrating those machine learning tools, and what exactly is it improving?

嘉宾：是的，所以你还记得我提过我们整合……嗯，你知道，最合适合作伙伴的模式。Guest: Yeah, so you remember I talked about our model of uh integrating, you know, the the best possible partner.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：我认为 Mistral 非常符合这种模式。嗯，ASML 不是一家 AI 公司。你知道，我们有优秀的工程师，懂光刻、光学和机械，但我们没有开发模型的基因。Guest: And I think Mistral fit that model very well. Uh ASML is not a AI company. You know, we we have good engineers who understand litho, optic, mechanics, uh but we we don't have a DNA in developing models.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：呃，我们甚至还没有具备真正理解如何最大限度利用数据的基因。Guest: Uh we don't have even a DNA in understanding exactly how to make the best possible use of our data.

主持人：是的。Host: Yep.

嘉宾：即便如此，作为一家公司，我们每……我不知道，每分钟都会产生太字节级的数据，如果你看看世界各地正在发生的事情的话。[清嗓] 所以，与 Mistral 合作的想法，是找一家愿意与我们深入合作的公司，利用我们的数据，帮助我们围绕这些数据构建架构，然后为我们的产品、运营、研发等等开发我所说的高度定制化模型。这大致就是我们建立的合作模式。我认为，Mistral 确实在践行、甚至可以说是在支持开源，因为他们也相信，AI 的真正价值不只在于模型本身，还在于你能基于模型开发出什么应用。他们的看法是，如果保持开源，大多数人都能获得模型核心部分现有的一切，也就能把时间——或者更多时间——花在定制化上。Guest: Even so, as a company, we generate, you know, terabytes of data uh per per I don't know, per minute if if you look at what's happening [clears throat] uh around the world. So, the idea of uh the partnership with Mistral was to bring a company that would be willing to work with us very deeply in order to use our data, help us creating an architecture around that, and then develop what I will call very customized model for our product, for our operations, for our R&D, etc., etc. So, that's a bit the model we put in place. And I think, you know, Mistral is indeed working or even I would say supporting open source because they also believe that the real value of AI is not just the model, it's the application you will drive out of the model. And the belief is if you keep open source most people get whatever exists when it comes to the the core of the model and can also spend time or more time on on the customization.

主持人：Mistral 是欧洲公司这一点，是否影响了这项决定？Host: Did the fact that Mistral is European factor into that decision?

嘉宾：这个问题我们确实经常被问到。所以，我想我们很高兴他们是欧洲人。不过我也多次说过，这个项目是一个真正的工业项目，我们确实考察了欧洲内外许多潜在合作伙伴，并选择了我们认为最适合与我们合作的公司和团队。所以，这是一个真正基于工业考量作出的决定。媒体对此的解读略有不同，这也没关系。Guest: Well, it's a question that we get a lot. So, I think we we like it that they are European. But I said many times, you know, the the the project was a real industrial project and we really looked at many different potential partner in Europe, outside Europe and we picked the company, the group of people that we thought was the most fit to to work with us. So, this this was a real industrial decision. It has been read a bit differently by the the press which which is also okay.

主持人：那么，作为一家大公司——欧洲最大的公司——我们这里有很多小公司，也有投资小公司的投资者，他们都说想和大公司合作，因为如果某件事能扩大规模，大公司就能带来很多业务。初创公司对 ASML 有多重要？Host: So, as as as a big company, biggest in Europe, we've got a lot of small companies here and investors in small companies who are saying we want to work with the big players because they can provide a lot of business if if if something scales. How important are the startups to ASML?

ASML 如何支持初创企业How ASML Backs Startups

嘉宾：嗯，我认为关键问题是，如果你要与 ASML 或其他大型公司合作，他们能怎样帮助你？当然，你知道，资金支持一直是个问题，在欧洲尤其如此，对吧？我知道这一点。但我认为，你需要追求的不只是资金。在 ASML，我们希望能真正参与一个新领域或新创公司。但只有当我们相信公司现有的能力——无论是工程技术、运营能力，还是其他方面——能够提供帮助时，我们才会这样做。因为根据我们的经验，这是最重要的。对吧？过去 40 年里，我们在 ASML 积累了很多经验，也犯过我刚才提到的那些错误。我们认为，如果能帮助几家公司少犯一些这样的错误，那就很有价值。Guest: Well, I think the key question is um if you're going to work with ASML or any other big company how can they help you? Uh of course, you know, there's always a funding part which in Europe is still a challenge, right? I know that. But I think you you need to want more than that. And in ASML we're looking for real opportunity to engage on a new field, new startup. But we only do that if we believe that the competencies we have in the company can be engineering, that can be a operation, that can be many things, can help. Because our experience and we have gone through that is that this is mostly the most important. Right? All the learning we have had in ASML over the 40 years with all the mistake I talked about Well, we think that if we can help a few company to skip a few of those mistakes, that can be a benefit.

所以，这确实是我们看待这件事的方式。我认为，对于一家初创公司来说，这才是真正的问题。如果你要与一家大公司合作，它能怎样帮助你？因为大公司也可能把你扼杀掉，对吧？大公司有各种各样的其他因素，并不总是适合小公司。So, that's really the way we look at it. And I think for a startup, that's the real question. So, if you're going to work with a bigger company, how would that company can help you? Because that big company could also kill you. Right? Because big company have all kind of other things that are not always fit for smaller one.

主持人：我本来想问，你觉得这种理念也适用于其他大型公司吗？Host: I was going to ask, does that philosophy you think apply to other large companies?

主持人：什么？Host: Sorry?

主持人：你认为其他大型公司也有类似的理念吗？Host: Do you think that philosophy is similar across other large companies?

嘉宾：我我我觉得应该是这样。呃，但有时候人们会止步于，你知道，投资本身。Guest: I I I think that it should be. Uh but sometime people stop at, you know, the the the the investment itself.

主持人：对。Host: Right.

嘉宾：对吧？就像我说的，这在欧洲尤其如此，因为我知道，在座的各位肯定都在为获得资金而发愁。我知道这一点，因为这是我们和欧洲朋友交流时经常谈到的话题。我们得让融资变得容易得多。不过你知道，资金到位之后，还有其他所有事情要做。当然，这些事情对于一家公司的成功同样重要。Guest: Right? And like I say, it's specially true in Europe because I know that everyone here in the room must be struggling to get access to capital. I know that because this is one of the conversation we have with our European friends. We need to make that a lot easier. But you know, once the money is there then you have all the rest. And all the rest is, of course, as important to make the success of a company.

主持人：我记得英伟达的黄仁勋说过，他们从供应链的角度要对接一万个不同的合作伙伴。他们会逐一深入了解每个合作伙伴，设法优化他们的流程，因为最终这会让他们的业务做得更好。这也让我觉得，情况多少有点类似。你提到欧洲面临融资困难。说实话，我有很多时间都待在美国，因为许多关键合作伙伴都在那里。欧洲作为一个枢纽，在深科技领域做得很好，对吧？比如，我来自一个拥有 ARM 的国家。但我们不太擅长发展深厚的产业基础。大家一直都在问，Host: It's I remember um Jensen of Nvidia saying, you know, they deal with 10,000 from a supply chain perspective, they deal with 10,000 different partners. And they're literally going into everyone to try and optimize their flow. Cuz it ends up making their business better. Like it kind of feels a little bit like that as well. Um you you you mentioned Europe having having this funding difficulty. And um you know, I'll be honest, I spend a lot of my time in the US cuz that's where a lot of uh the key partners are. Um and there's the Europe as a hub is very good um at deep technology, right? I'm I'm from a country that has ARM, for example. Um but we're not so good at developing deep industry. Everybody keeps asking,

欧洲的万亿美元级企业难题Europe's Trillion-Dollar Company Problem

“欧洲什么时候才能诞生一家万亿美元级的公司？”嗯，欧洲需要做些什么，才能从这类技术中获取更多产业价值？进一步说，欧盟新出台的《芯片法案》能起到帮助吗？"When's the trillion-dollar European company going to come from?" Um what does Europe need to do to capture more of that sort of industrial value from the technology? And by extension, does the new EU Chips Act help?

嘉宾：是的，这是个好问题。我们正和几位政治领导人讨论这个问题。我认为有几点。首先，要保住我们现有的优势。你说得对，我认为欧洲的教育很出色。我们有很多资金充足的研究机构，而这正是有这么多人带着好点子来到这里、创办初创公司的原因。这就是起点。现在，正如我们之前讨论过的，总会有一个阶段，需要把事业扩大规模。要扩大规模，就得招聘员工、找场地、买机器，还得投资。因此，你需要具备投资能力，也要能获得资本。第二，你所处的环境应该帮助你完成这些事情，而不是拖你的后腿。Guest: Yeah, so that's a that's a good question. It's a discussion we're having with several uh political leaders. I think a couple of things. So, the first thing is to keep the good thing we have. And you're right. Uh I think education in Europe is great. Uh we have a lot of research facilities that are well funded most of the time. And this is the reason why indeed we have so many uh people who come with great ideas and create their startup. So, this this is the starting point. Now, as we discussed before, there's always a point of time where this has to be scaled up. And to scale, you have to hire people, you have to get a space, you have to buy a machine. You have to invest. And therefore, you need to have invest uh meant capability, access to capital. The second thing is that the environment you're going to be in should help you to do all of that rather than slow you down.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：这两点非常重要：更容易获得资本，以及欧洲采取行动，推动技术发展、赋能产业。美国、中国和欧洲之间的一大差异就在于这两点：获得资本的难易程度……Guest: And those two things easier access to capital but also having Europe acting to enable technology to enable the industry are very important. One of the big difference between the US, China, and Europe are those two things. Access to capital

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：[清了清嗓子]Guest: [clears throat]

主持人：美国和中国的政府，我认为会发挥推动作用。他们会确保监管规定能够让这个行业蓬勃发展。欧洲是唯一一个我们认为整个政府体系都在做完全相反事情的地方。这仍然是一项重大挑战。Host: and government in the US and China is going to act as I would say an enabling body. So, they will make sure that, you know, regulation uh are such that the industry can flourish. Europe is the only place where you know, we believe that the whole of government is to do the exact opposite. And this is still a major challenge.

客人：嗯。Guest: Mhm.

主持人：这是一个非常艰难的转变。我是说，我和很多领导者聊过很多次。我想他们也认同这一点。他们面临的挑战就是改变。Host: It's a very difficult change. I mean, I talk a lot with a lot of leader. I think they even agree with that. And the challenge they have is to change.

客人：嗯。Guest: Mhm.

主持人：这意味着从我们已经建立起来的基础，迈向让所有深科技初创企业蓬勃发展所需的条件，并因此具备竞争力。Host: It's to go from what we have built to what we need for all those deep tech startup to flourish. And as a result to compete

嘉宾：嗯。Guest: Mhm.

主持人：在全球范围内。竞争是很多人不喜欢的一个词，对吧？光有好点子——嗯，光有一家好公司还不够。你最终还是会参与竞争。Host: on a global scale. Compete is a word a lot of people don't like. Right? It's not enough to have good ideas, yep, good company. You're going to end up competing

嘉宾：嗯。Guest: Mhm.

主持人：伴随着[清了清嗓子]同样出色的创意，以及来自美国、中国和世界其他地方的同样优秀的企业。顺便说一句，在座的每个人都必须做好准备迎接这一点。但我认为，在座的每个人都应该感到，治理他们的人是在帮助他们，而不是伤害他们。Host: with [clears throat] similar good ideas, similar good company from the US, from China, from the rest of the world. That's something, by the way, everyone in this room has to be prepared to do. But, I think that's something that everyone in the room should feel they are being helped rather than hurt by the people who govern them.

主持人：情况好转了吗？Host: Is it getting better?

主持人：什么？Host: Sorry?

主持人：情况正在好转吗？Host: Is it getting better?

嘉宾：我觉得，呃，在理解方面正在变得更好，其中一部分也是出于紧迫感，出于这样一种认识：如果我们不改变，事情就会出岔子。Guest: I think it's uh getting better in term of understanding and a bit of that is out of uh urgency, out of realizing that if we don't change then things are going to go wrong.

主持人：是的。Host: Yep.

嘉宾：这对欧洲来说有点棘手。你得等乌克兰爆发战争，才会意识到自己需要一支军队。Guest: That's a bit of a challenge with Europe. You need to have a war in Ukraine to realize that you need an army.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：呃，你还需要失去企业。你得先让自己的初创公司取得成功，然后搬到美国，才能意识到自己有个问题。所以我认为，人们已经意识到这里存在问题了。我觉得，变革能够发生的速度仍然是一个真正的挑战。所以，如果你看看《芯片法案2.0》，你、你、你、你刚才提到了这一点。我们看到了一些改进。呃，关注点更广泛地放在了市场本身和整个生态系统上，而不仅仅是芯片制造。呃，与经济、与产业的联系也更紧密了。Guest: Uh you need also to lose businesses. You need your startup to be successful and then move to the United States to understand that you have a problem. So, I think that the realization that there is a problem is here. The speed at which the change can happen, I think is still a real challenge. So, if you look at the Chips Act 2.0, you you you you mentioned that. We've seen some um improvements. Uh there's a wider focus on the market itself, on the entire ecosystem, not only on manufacturing chips. Uh there is stronger link to maybe uh the economy, to the industry.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：这一点很好。仍然不够理想的是，委员会愿意参与所有这些产品。你知道，我们还需要说服他们，应该由行业来引领行业，而不是由委员会来引领。Guest: That part is good. The part that is still not good enough is the willingness of the commission to be involved in all those products. You know, we still need to convince them that the industry should lead the industry, not the commission.

AI 对内存价格的影响AI's Impact On Memory Prices

主持人：那么，沿着这个思路，嗯，全球地缘政治方面有很多事情正在发生，同时我们也处于这样的宏观经济环境中：像存储器这样的产品需求非常旺盛。嗯，有人说产能已经被预订一空，一直排到 2028 年之类的。这一切都是由机器学习推动的。呃，地缘政治方面的某些情况或许不是，但你懂我的意思。嗯，面对这些变化，你们在与供应链合作时做了哪些调整？Host: So, so on that same nature, um we've got a lot of things going on globally when it comes to geopolitics, but we also have this macroeconomic environment where things like memory are in such high demand. Um people are saying it's sold out through 2028, that sort of thing. All being driven by machine learning. Uh maybe not some of the geopolitics, but you know what I mean. Um how have you changed working with your supply chain as a result of these uh changes?

嘉宾：嗯，我觉得，你知道，所描述的这些变化大约会在6个月内发生。Guest: Well, I think that um you know, the the changes describe happen in about 6 months.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：所以，回顾六个月前，我们展望的是2026年、2027年，当时我们认为市场状况不错，但整体相当平稳。呃，我记得去年7月，我们甚至在季度业绩发布时说，我们无法确认会实现增长。之所以这么说，是因为我们的客户没有增长。而在过去六个月里，大家开始意识到，这个AI机遇将切实转化为大规模的基础设施建设，Guest: So, if I look back 6 months ago, we were looking at 2026, 2027, we were looking at a healthy market, but a pretty flattish market. Uh I remember in July last year, we even you know, in our quarter results, we say we we cannot confirm growth. And the reason we say that it's because our customer were not growing. And in the course of the last 6 months, everyone started to realize that this AI opportunity is going to translate for real into a major build-up of infrastructure,

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：这很可能需要两年、三年、四年或五年。Guest: which will take most probably 2, 3, 4, 5 years.

主持人：是的。Host: Yep.

嘉宾：而且一旦基础设施到位，我想这就会转化为大量新产品，对吧？可以是机器人，也可以是各种医疗保健产品、能源产品，你能想到的都有，而这些产品可能需要更多芯片。所以，几个月来，甚至可能几年里，人们都多少有些怀疑，甚至非常怀疑，后来这种情况就逆转了。Guest: And once the infrastructure is in place, uh this will translate into I would say a lot of new product, right? It could be robots, it could be all kind of you know, health care product, energy product, you name it, that could require even more chips. So, people were a bit doubtful or even a lot doubtful for quite a few months, maybe a couple of years, and then this flipped.

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：而你现在看到的是，整个行业都在努力弥补相当严重的积压。因此，有人表示，这种情况可能会持续到2027年、2028年，甚至更久。Guest: And what you see now is the whole industry trying to catch up on a pretty significant backlog. Therefore, the statement that this could last in the year 2027, 2028, maybe beyond that.

主持人：那么，现实地说，你对未来有多少把握？Host: So, realistically, how much visibility do you have in the future?

嘉宾：我认为，我们通常能看到未来两到三年的情况，因为这也是我们的客户能看到的，而且他们的客户也会告诉他们。所以，我们把这称为一种自下而上的视角。我认为，未来两三年的情况我们是掌握的。之后，我们会尝试预测和建模，稍微推测一下需求可能会是什么样。不过，显然，AI已经极大地改变了这个行业的需求。过去，手机、PC和电动汽车是重要的需求来源；而现在，当然也出现了很多新的应用。如今，AI大约占据了半导体产量的一半。Guest: I think we typically I think 2, 3 years we can see because that's also what our customer can see and also what uh their customer tell them. So, this is what we call a bit a uh bottoms-up view. So, I think we have that for the next 2 3 years. And after that, we we try to anticipate to model a bit, you know, what the demand could be. Uh but there again, it's clear that AI have changed dramatically the demand for the industry because it used to be mobile phone, PC, EV was a big thing. And now, of course, you're hiding a lot of new new application. AI is taking about half of, you know, the production of semiconductor today.

主持人：那么，回顾过去十到十五年，看看那些大公司，有一种在其中几家公司身上反复出现的说法：每一代都得押上整个公司去冒险，才能基本上活下来，因为你不这么做，就会落后。而且，有些竞争者你永远也追不上。嗯，你怎么看这种说法？Host: So, if I go back over the last 10 15 years, and I I look at big companies, what one of the thing one of the consistent narratives in a few of them is that they have to bet the company every generation in order to essentially survive cuz if you don't, you end up behind. And you can never catch up with some of these players. Um what's your take on that view?

嘉宾：嗯，我我我觉得，呃，作为一家公司，尤其是一家成功的公司，你可能犯的一个错误，就是相信，呃，你过去成功的秘诀……Guest: Well, I I I think that um the the one mistake you can make as a company, especially as a successful company, is to believe that uh the recipe of your past success

主持人：嗯。Host: Mhm.

嘉宾：这是你未来成功的秘诀。这是公司常犯的错误，因为当你非常成功时，会觉得自己做得相当不错。你会认为自己一定做对了，而每天你也都会得到自己做对了的印证。然后，你可能会问自己，也可能不会问自己：好吧，未来五年、十年会发生什么？你看得到世界变化得有多快。我的意思是，如今人们会说，如果大多数公司不投身人工智能，就可能会远远落后。但要投身人工智能，就必须做出改变。我在 ASML 就看到了这一点：围绕人工智能来组织公司，需要做出相当大的调整。所以，你总是要着眼于接下来会发生什么，并为此做好准备。即使未来十年所需要的东西，与过去十年你所做的截然不同。Guest: is the recipe of your future success. This is the mistake that company make very often because when you're very successful, you feel pretty good about it. You you must be doing the right thing. And you know, every day you get confirmation that you do the right thing. And then, you may or may not ask yourself the question of, okay, you know, what's happening in the next 5 year, next 10 years? You see how quickly the world is changing. I mean, people say today, I mean, if if most company don't jump on AI, they may fall behind dramatically. But to jump on AI, you have to change something. I see it in ASML, you know, to to organize a company around the eye is quite some changes. So, you always have to look at what is going to come next and prepare for that. Even if what you need for the next 10 years is very different from what you have done in the last 10 years.

如今，在我们这个行业里，我们算是比较幸运的，因为我们 20 年前开发的工具至今仍在使用。Now, in our industry, we're a bit lucky because the tool we produced 20 years ago are still used today.

主持人：是的。Host: Yep.

嘉宾：对吧？所以，它始终是在……之上，因此这类挑战就容易一些。不过，我们当然也在寻找新的机会。你知道，我刚才谈到了 3D 集成。这是我们在 ASML 肯定会关注的事情，而且我们会继续这样做。所以我想，这也是任何董事会、任何 CEO 在公司里应承担的职责之一。Guest: Right? So, it's always on top of, so that makes that kind of challenge a bit easier. Uh but we're of course looking at new opportunity, you know, I talked about 3D integration. This is something we we look at certainly in ASML. And we will continue to do that. So, I would say that's one of the responsibility of any board, any CEO to to to to have in a company.

给克里斯托夫的惊喜礼物A Surprise Gift For Christophe

主持人：好了，最后我没有问题，不过有个惊喜。而且我还没告诉你们团队，所以这会很有意思。克里斯托夫的公司生产的高端设备，价格大约在3.5亿到4亿欧元。它用多台20千瓦激光器，以每秒5万次的速度将液态锡喷射到一个穹顶上。随后，光线会经过一系列光学元件，其中最大的镜子直径约为1.2米，而这面凹面镜的误差只有20皮米。这就是你们的合作伙伴蔡司。我很幸运，大约18个月前参观了英特尔的首台设备安装现场。嗯，碰巧我也看到了上一代设备在格芯建造时的样子。作为一名工程师，看到这一切，你只会想：第一，这到底是怎么回事？第二，它怎么会如此复杂？第三，一家公司怎么能把这一切整合起来？Host: So, to wrap up, I don't have a question, but I do have a surprise. And I haven't told your team this, so this will be fun. The machine that Kristof's company makes at the high end, somewhere around 350 400 million euros, you fire liquid tin 50,000 times a second into a dome using multiple 20 kilowatt lasers. It then goes through a series of optics where the biggest mirror is something like 1.2 meters, and the error in that concave mirror is 20 picometers. This is your partners at Zeiss. And I was lucky enough to visit the very first installation of one at Intel about 18 months ago. Um and by chance of also I also saw the ones of the previous gen in Global Foundries when they were being built. And as an engineer, you just look at this and go, one, what is happening? Two, how is it this complex and then three how is one individual company brought it all together.

所以，我要给你一个小惊喜：我有一份小礼物送给你。So, my surprise is that I have a little gift for you.

嘉宾：现在嘛，既然我在做 YouTube 频道，每个网红都有自己的周边商品。我拿了自己拍的一张那台高端 EUV 设备的照片，委托人把它做成了有点 3D 卡通风格的设计。所以我有一双袜子。我很乐意送你一份这台 EUV 设备的纪念品。嗯，刚出炉的，昨天才刚到。嗯，我是说，3.5 亿美元呢，快去吧，尽管拿。Guest: Now, as I run a YouTube channel every influencer has merchandise and I took one of my photos of that high-end EUV machine um and got it commissioned in sort of like a 3D cartoony design. So, I have a pair of socks. I would love to give you highlight of the EUV machine. It's um hot off the press. These actually arrived uh yesterday. Um j- just to show I mean, $350 million for Go go go for it.

主持人：[哼笑]Host: [snorts]

客人：看那个。我、我妻子肯定会问我：“你到底干了什么？”Guest: Look at that. My my wife is going to tell me what the hell have you done.

主持人：给你。Host: There you go.

嘉宾：好了，这就是你们的机器有多复杂。嗯，非常感谢你，Kristof，也感谢各位莅临。嗯，希望大家接下来也能享受活动。谢谢。Guest: There you go. There's how complex your machines are. Um so, thank you very much, Kristof, and thank you all of you um for attending. Um I hope you do enjoy the rest of the event. Thank you.

主持人：谢谢。Host: Thank you.

嘉宾：所以，我知道自己在这个行业一路走来，和不少人交谈过。考虑到我过去其实没有真正和 ASML 有过深入交流，这次互动多少有点超现实。不过，他们似乎挺喜欢我们做的内容。也许以后会有更多关于 ASML 的内容。呃，Kristof 真的很喜欢那些袜子。呃，我们会在下方的 Tech Tech Potato 商店里放上购买链接，也会在屏幕上显示，可能还会在某处放一个链接。嗯，不过，这次谈话的目的并不是为了针锋相对，而是为了让观众有所收获。这也就是为什么我们采用了那种形式和问答流程。毕竟这些人都是早期创业公司的人，也有早期投资者，所以我们也据此针对欧洲子系统生态进行了调整。嗯，之后还会有几场类似的活动，嘉宾是 ASML 以外的其他公司。Guest: So, I know I've spoken to a number of people in my journey through this industry and that interaction was a little bit surreal given the fact that I haven't really interacted with ASML properly in the past. Though, they seem to like what we did. So, perhaps more ASML content in the future. Uh Kristof really liked the socks. Uh so, we're going to leave a link to them in the Tech Tech Potato store down below and on screen and a link somewhere probably. Um but yeah, the the goal of the talk wasn't to be combative. Uh it was meant to be educational for the audience. Hence why we did that sort of setup and Q&A flow. The fact that these people were you know, early startups, these people were early investors. So, we tailored tailored it to the European subsystem ecosystem as part of that. Um but yeah, there's a few more like this coming up with other companies other than ASML.

如果你想在频道里看到更多这类内容，记得在下方留言。And if you want to see more of those on the channel, do leave a comment down below.